USDA trims Bangladesh’s cotton import outlook for third time

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has further lowered Bangladesh’s cotton import forecast for the ongoing marketing year (MY) 2025-26, citing reduced use in mills.

Bangladesh is now projected to import 77 lakh bales this MY-- 2.5 percent lower than the 79 lakh bales the USDA forecast in March, and the third downward revision since January, when it had projected 80 lakh bales.

“USDA has again lowered Bangladesh’s cotton import forecast, most recently on April 6, as energy shortages, weaker garment export orders, higher yarn imports, and financial and logistics constraints have cut spinning activity more than expected,” said Md Mohiuddin Rubel, a former director of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association.

The revision comes as Bangladesh’s readymade garment exports fell 5.5 percent year-on-year in July-March of the MY. Knitwear, the main user of cotton yarn, fell 6.4 percent.

Rubel said the sector remains under pressure from macroeconomic stress, an energy crisis, and subdued global apparel demand, with international buyers pushing down unit prices and eroding margins.

Gas pressure in key industrial zones often falls below 2 PSI, leaving many mills running below capacity and importing cotton only against confirmed orders. Concerns over losing trade preferences after graduating from the least developed country status have added to the caution.

The USDA, in two separate reports on cotton published in the second week of this month, did not bring up the decline in exports. However, it said use of the fibre in mills is likely to be 78 lakh bales, down 2.5 percent from its March forecast.

Global consumption of cotton was forecast to rise by nearly 600,000 bales to 11.91 crore bales due to increased demand in China and India.

According to the USDA, world cotton trade for MY26 is forecast to rise 3 percent from a year ago, mainly due to considerable increases in cotton imports by India and China.

“Lower imports for Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Vietnam more than offset higher imports for China and India,” it said in a monthly report published last week.

In its latest outlook on cotton and wool released on April 13, the USDA said global cotton imports in 2025-26 are led by Vietnam and Bangladesh, accounting for a combined 35 percent of the total.

China’s 2025-26 cotton imports are expected to rise more than 15 percent to 60 lakh bales, helping support its textile and apparel exports to the world market. India’s cotton imports are forecast to expand 38 percent to 42 lakh bales in MY26 as back-to-back smaller-than-usual crops have led to higher imports, it added.