Indian defence minister's visit to China:Implications

India and China are perceived as the two major players in Asia-Pacific region and that in turn provide a major role for them in world affairs. How they define their relationship is an issue that attracts attention of major powers and Asian countries. Much of the threat to security and economic prosperity in the region and beyond lies in their unstable and uncooperative relationship.

Since the brief war in 1962 between the two Asian giants in which China defeated India, their ties has been marked by high and low level of relationship depending on the situation around the region and outside. Trust was replaced by suspicion in their bilateral relationship for a long time.

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Another fact that underpins their relationship is the refuge of the Dalai Lama in India, from where he moves around the world, a political headache for China.

However, since 1989, a new phase appeared to have set in because China de-regulated its economy and moved towards market economy. Economy has become the centre piece of China's foreign policy, although politically it remains controlled by the Communist Party.

The bifurcation between economy and politics is a move never attempted before by any Communist State. Some argue that the former Soviet Union would not have collapsed had they adopted this bifurcated policy.

Since 1991 India has also de-regulated its economy. Both countries saw that they need each other in an environment of economic globalisation. India's bilateral trade with China reportedly stands at about US$ 7 billion from meager millions just ten years ago.

Both China and India felt the need to resolve some of their political issues including the outstanding border disputes (Sino-Indian border runs about 3,500 kilometres). China and India came to an understanding that political disputes should not impede close economic relationships. Accordingly, they reached an understanding on border disputes.

Significance of the visit
The visit has been both cause and effect of a shift in defence policy of both countries. Cooperation in defence between the two perceived rival countries was unthinkable a decade ago but the very fact that China has warmly welcomed the visit of India's Defence Minister commences a new phase in their relationship in defence cooperation.

Mukherjee's presence in Beijing provided him the opportunity to sign an accord that would institutionalise military training, exercise and other contacts between the two countries' armed forces. The purpose of the accord will aim to develop " a strategic and cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity between India and China" and at enhancing trust between the two militaries.

Mukherjee who earlier visited both Washington and Moscow cannot ignore Beijing at the time when China is emerging as a major player in world affairs. Furthermore China is a veto-wielding nation in the UN Security Council. Last year India saw that its hope of getting into the Council as permanent member along with Brazil, Japan and Germany was dashed, partly because of China's opposition to the expansion of the Security Council.

India has also to calm China's concerns about the Indo-US nuclear deal in which India will get not only nuclear fuel but updated technology for its nuclear plants in return of inspection by the IAEA to some of its nuclear plants. Although the deal is directed to civilian use of nuclear fuel and technology, many countries perceive that it could be diverted to military use as India has not been a party to the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

It is believed that Mukherjee's visit to Beijing is to explain the nuclear deal with the US so as to assure China that India's use of nuclear fuel and technology from the US will remain peaceful and is solely directed to energy generation for its ever-growing economy.

China is said to become the world's third-largest nuclear power with about 400 nuclear warheads. The US considers China as strategic competitor and has stepped up its efforts to cultivate or use India as an instrument of containment of China. Whenever China's defence expenditure rises (in 2005 China increased its defence expenditure to 12.5 per cent), the US cautions China for its transparency for its spending and perceives expenditure on military intimidating to countries in the region.

Both India and Japan are also allies of the US and Mukherjee is likely to provide assurance that China is not being encircled by US allies in the same way when India complained in the 70s the Sino-American rapport indicated a hidden US-Pakistan-China plan to encircle India. Strategists say that India wants to assure China that it will not be an instrument of "power game" on behalf of the US in the region.

Ramification on South Asia
The visit, according to many South Asian strategists, will have an impact on South Asia's security. Threat to security in South Asia is not confined only to SAARC countries because China casts a shadow on it. It is common knowledge that India defines its defence strategy in the light of China's military strength and Pakistan assesses its security concerns against India's position. This triangular security perception has been one of the main impediments of having a common security doctrine for South Asia.

The Indo-Sino deal on defence cooperation may have a positive effect in the sense that some states within South Asia may not draw China in maintaining security in South Asia. Furthermore there will be less chance of playing China against India by some states in South Asia.

The visit may not be seen by Pakistan as comfortable, whatever the public declaration about the purpose of the visit. Pakistan could not get a nuclear deal from the US as India did and secondly Sino-Indo defence cooperation may ring alarm bells in Pakistan that if the two Asian giants cooperate, Pakistan's strategic position and importance will dwindle in the region.

India and Pakistan were yoked together like unreconciled Siamese twins. Parity was extended to create a perception (some call it a myth) that if India's neighbour Pakistan was not equal in military power, security in South Asia will not remain stable.

The reality is Pakistan's GDP is one-eighth of India's, it has one-seventh the population and one-fifth of the area. Pakistan's armed forces are much smaller than India's ( India's nearly 1.3 million as against Pakistan's 620,000). Lately Pakistan seems to have perceived the reality that it cannot achieve parity with India in all respects.

Conclusion
The fashionable argument is that the logic of geopolitics and security has lost its potency because China, India and Pakistan are nuclear power states with missile capabilities. War is not seen as a possibility anymore.

Many argue that the visit may usher in an era to develop the world's biggest market and could provide all SAARC nations with strategic and economic support. The rapport between China and India is likely to work to the advantage of all South Asian countries, if sound and pragmatic policies are adopted.

It seems that Mukherjee's visit to China confirms the doctrine of Sir Winston Churchill who said: " To jaw-jaw is always better than war-war."

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.