‘Jamaat-IAB split a blow to Islamists’ one-box plan’

Islami Andolan Bangladesh’s withdrawal from the Jamaat-led 11-party alliance, which aimed at mobilising Islamist votes, is set to have a negative effect on the alliance’s “one-box policy”.

Islamic-minded voters now have three options: the Jamaat-led electoral alliance, which brings together five Islamist parties, three of which are rooted in the Qawmi madrasa tradition; the Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB), led by the Charmonai Pir; and three Qawmi-based Islamist parties under the BNP-led alliance.

Against this backdrop, the fragmentation of Islamist forces may prove decisive in shaping the outcomes across key constituencies.

In theory, the public will vote for the most capable and respectable candidate, said Salahuddin Muhammad Babar, a political analyst.

“People may have a religious attachment to Islami Andolan, but I can’t say for sure how much political attachment there will be in the upcoming election. So I do not think this will have any significant impact on Jamaat’s vote,” he said.

IAB traces its roots to Islami Shashontantra Andolan, founded in 1987 by Syed Fazlul Karim, the then Pir of Charmonai. 

After his death in 2006, the leadership passed to his son, Syed Rezaul Karim. The party adopted its current name to meet Election Commission registration requirements ahead of the 2008 polls.

“IAB would have benefitted more by staying with Jamaat, and there would have been a reason for their vote share to increase,” said Babar, also the editor of the Bangla daily Naya Diganta.

In the 1996 election, IAB secured 11,159 votes, and in the 2018 election, more than 12 lakh votes -- the third-highest tally after the Awami League and the BNP-led alliance despite allegations of widespread ballot stuffing on the eve of polling, according to data from the Election Commission. The party boycotted the 2014 and 2024 elections.

“It was clear from the beginning that the ‘one-box policy’ would end up like this, but there was a sense of urgency on Jamaat’s part, because through this arrangement, Jamaat wanted to throw down a challenge to the BNP,” said Mohiuddin Ahmad, a political analyst and writer.

However, it would be an overstatement to say that Jamaat is in serious trouble. 

“Jamaat will now have to stand on its own strength. And through this election, Jamaat’s own capacity will be tested. This is because the party is contesting an election without its long-term ally BNP,” he said.

With the Awami League barred from participating in the 13th parliamentary election, the main fight on February 12 is set to be between the BNP and the Jamaat-led 10-party alliance, according to political analysts.

The Jamaat-led 10-party alliance includes three Islamic parties: Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis, Khelafat Majlis, and Bangladesh Khelafat Andolan.

Initially, eight parties were part of the platform.

As the election drew closer, discussions began on turning the platform into an electoral alliance. 

On the eve of the nomination deadline, the National Citizen Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and AB Party joined the bloc.

On Thursday night, the alliance declared its nominees in 253 constituencies, leaving 47 seats vacant for IAB and two other partners: Bangladesh Khilafat Andolan and Jatiya Gonotantrik Party.

The following day, IAB announced that it parted ways with the Jamaat-led electoral alliance.

Many hoped that Islamist votes would unite this time, but in reality, these Islamist parties have fundamental differences that prevent them from tolerating one another, said Altaf Parvez, political analyst and researcher.

Jamaat, for instance, follows the Maududi line, while IAB is rooted in the Deobandi tradition.

“In terms of votes, naturally, things will get a bit messy.”

IAB will now look to mobilise votes from Jamaat’s base. In so doing, the party will suffer in the lower house but benefit in the upper house, he added.

Jamaat’s best performance came in 1991, when it won 18 seats with 12.13 percent of the popular vote, followed by 17 seats in 2001. 

The party boycotted the 2014 and 2024 elections and contested the 2018 polls under the BNP’s paddy sheaf symbol as part of the BNP-led alliance. Its registration was cancelled in 2013 following a High Court verdict, but restored along with its symbol in June last year.

It managed three seats in the 1996 polls, 17 in the 2001 polls as part of a four-party alliance and two in the 2008 polls. 

Since the 1991 polls, Islami Oikyajote won one seat each in the 1991 and June 1996 polls, and two in the 2001 polls. No other Islamic party has won a seat since the 1991 polls.