Inflation outpaces wages, squeezing real incomes

Rising food and service costs are eroding household purchasing power, particularly for lower-income groups whose consumption baskets are more heavily weighted toward essentials, according to the latest monthly economic update by the General Economics Division (GED).

The report released yesterday said the divergence between wage growth and price inflation widened further in January 2026.

While general inflation rose to 8.58 percent, wage growth remained stagnant at 8.08 percent, following 8.07 percent in December.

Since September 2025, inflation has consistently outpaced wages: inflation moved from 8.36 percent in September to 8.17 percent in October, 8.29 percent in November, 8.49 percent in December, and 8.58 percent in January.

In contrast, wage growth hovered narrowly between 8.01 percent and 8.08 percent over the same period.

“This sustained gap signals pressure on real incomes,” said the report, adding, “The persistence of this mismatch suggests that nominal wage adjustments are failing to keep pace with inflationary dynamics.”

“This identifies a need for coordinated wage and price management, as inflationary pressures continue to undermine real income stability,” added the report by GED under the planning ministry.

Food inflation rose to 8.29 percent in January from 7.71 percent in December, the report said, while non-food inflation moderated to 8.81 percent from 9.13 percent over the same period, narrowing the inflation differential between the two components.

“The recent trend indicates continued pressure from food prices within the overall inflation framework.”

Food remains the largest contributor to overall inflation and accounted for 43.06 percent in January, up 3 percentage points from December.

Housing and utilities contributed 15.05 percent, while miscellaneous goods and services accounted for 9.31 percent.

“The increase in food’s contribution suggests a greater concentration of inflationary pressure within essential consumption items.”

The report said notable increases were recorded in clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, and food.

It, however, said the internal composition warrants closer examination, citing that the contribution from rice to inflation decreased, but contributions from other food components continue to sustain overall food inflation.

“Despite a good harvest, higher vegetable prices are largely attributed to increased transportation costs and unhealthy profit motives among wholesale and middlemen traders. This highlights the need for improved supply chain management of food items, particularly rice, vegetables, and fish, to contain inflationary pressures more effectively.”

“Closer examination of item-wise prices at the market level remains essential for targeted policy action.”

The GED report also highlighted lower-than-targeted revenue collection by the National Board of Revenue and weak implementation of the government’s Annual Development Programme (ADP), suggesting urgent reform in planning, procurement, and fund release.

“Policymakers now face a trade-off: emergency fast-tracking with higher fiduciary risks versus focusing on fewer priority projects for quality outcomes. Without systemic reforms in planning, procurement, and fund release, fiscal year 2025-26 is poised to record the lowest ADP implementation rate, undermining infrastructure delivery and development goals.”

The GED also flagged risks from the high reliance on the apparel sector for exports.

At the same time, the very low share of capital machinery in total imports suggests limited investment-driven expansion, indicating that the recent rise in import payments is primarily consumption- or input-driven rather than linked to capacity-building.

“Taken together, the combination of strong apparel exports and weak capital machinery imports underscores the need for policies that promote investment in productive capacity and diversification, which are critical for sustaining external stability and supporting medium-term structural transformation.”

The GED report said the new government should give priority to attracting investment, generating employment, and reining in inflation to build a solid foundation for the economy.

“Restoring confidence among both local and foreign investors, further boosting foreign exchange reserves, and ensuring exchange rate stability will remain essential to strengthening overall economic stability.”