<i>Impact of Israel and Hamas ceasefire</i>
ON 19 June, Israel, and Hamas that controls the Gaza Strip, agreed to a ceasefire through an indirect negotiation by Egyptian mediators. It took three months for the Egyptian mediators to organize this truce between the two sides. However, it is uncertain how long this recently agreed truce will last.
Both sides agreed to start off with three days of calm. If that holds well, the economic blockade imposed a year ago by Israel will begin to ease.
The blockade was imposed when Hamas took the control of the strip from its secular political rival Fatah.
The next phase will be to renew talks on an exchange of Palestinian prisoners (perhaps some 1,400) for an Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit.
Both sides could benefit from a break. Gazan militants have rained a stream of rockets at Israelis nearby. Most are inaccurate and homemade but they have lately included more lethal, longer-range versions smuggled in from Egypt. They have killed a dozen Israelis in eight years.
Israel's attacks on Gaza have been more targeted but far bloodier: they have killed some 370 Gazans this year alone, not all of them gunslingers and at least seventy of them children.
Israel has piled on economic pressure, too. The 15 months of sanctions it imposed on the Palestinian Authority following Hamas's victory in a general election in 2006 had already weakened the economy; the blockade on Gaza, during which Israel let in only minimal levels of humanitarian goods and fuel, has ruined it.
Most Gazans still blame Israel. Hamas's popularity seems to rise when Gaza is under attack. But the combined military and economic pressure no doubt played a part in Hamas's decision to call a truce.
In any event, the ceasefire is frangible, not least because both Hamas and the Israelis have doubts about its benefits. The big push came from Egypt, which took on the mediator's role after some fierce fighting earlier this year.
Since Hamas blew down Gaza's southern wall in January, letting Palestinians flood into Egypt for a few days, the government in Cairo was worried that increasing Israeli pressure could again dump Gaza's problems on Egypt's lap.
So various things could end the ceasefire. Though other militant groups in Gaza hint that they would respect it, some may try to spoil it.
Among them are members of Fatah, Hamas's secular rival, which is still smarting at Hamas's takeover a year ago.
Since Israel and Hamas refuse direct contact, the channel for resolving disagreements or dampening sudden flare-upsi.e. Egyptwill be slow at best.
Besides, keeping up the ceasefire will need progress that both sides are uneasy about. Hamas wants Israel to lift its economic siege and eventually extend the ceasefire to the West Bank.
But Israel's eventual goal is still to weaken Hamas in favour of Fatah. It is holding talks with Fatah's leader, Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, who runs the West Bank; anything that gives Hamas respite may undermine these talks.
Fatah itself has been making noises about reconciliation with Hamas in the past few days, but for that reason it would rather see the Islamists weakened so it gets the best terms for a rapprochement.
Israel, for its part, wants Hamas to reduce smuggling weapons through tunnels under Gaza's border with Egypt.
But Hamas considers the arms essential to beefing itself up against a possible Israeli military incursion, and Egypt has been unable to stem the traffic itself.
In short, the ceasefire is likely to last only as long as neither side feels it is helping the other side too much.
And if the ceasefire collapses? Israeli leaders were sounding ever more aggressive before the ceasefire; a massive incursion to strike a mortal blow at Hamas was a matter of time.
A security official says the differences of opinion in the defense establishment on such an operation are now merely "tactical". Yet there is an element of bragging in all this, no doubt fuelled by Israeli politicians who are scenting early elections in the wake of the latest corruption scandal to engulf Ehud Olmert, the prime minister.
A full-scale incursion against Hamas's estimated force of 15,000-20,000 armed and well-trained men could cost several Israeli soldiers' lives, more than have ever been killed by the rockets. Similarly, hundreds of Palestinians would undoubtedly die bringing international condemnation on Israel and destroying the peace process with Mr Abbas.
It would be hard for Israelis to argue for a military onslaught without either an extreme provocation or a guaranteed result. So a ceasefire gives both Prime Minister Olmert and Ehud Barak, his defense minister and political rival, who last month issued an ultimatum to Mr Olmert to step down or face early elections, some welcome space.
Prime Minister Olmert will also benefit if reports come true of an imminent prisoner swap with Lebanon's Hizbullah, which captured two Israeli soldiers and sparked a five-week-long war with Israel two years ago.
But finally the biggest winner may be a rival to both of them: Binyamin Netanyahu, the leader of the opposition Likud party, who currently leads in the polls. Incase, there is heavy fighting, voters may still return to the battle-tested Mr Barak, a former army chief. If the ceasefire holds, Mr Netanyahu could reap the rewards.
Israel agreed to an Egyptian-brokered truce with Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist movement that runs the Gaza Strip. It is hoped the truce will stop Hamas and other groups from firing rockets at Israel and that Israel will no longer carry out raids on Gaza.
The Palestinians of Gaza also hope the blockade imposed by Israel will gradually, if at first partially, be lifted.
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