No Nonsense
Good for America, good for the world
As the US primary election season approaches its decisive phase with two of the delegate rich states of Texas and Ohio, the desperation in the presidential bid of Sen. Hillary Clinton may turn into a doomsday despair unless she wins both states by 65% of the votes cast on February 5 -- a nearly unrealistic proposition according to most pollsters.
Then again, winning by such a landslide margin will only make her competitive with Sen. Barack Obama in the elected delegate counts (pledged delegates); forcing the nomination to be decided in the party's August convention in Denver, Colorado -- one that would require invoking the "nuclear option" -- the wheeling and dealing of the so-called 796 superdelegates.
Deciding on a presidential nominee by invoking the "nuclear option" is undemocratic -- one that subordinates the aspirations of the voters. However, this option will not be warranted if Obama wins both Ohio and Texas primaries.
The concept of super-delegates first surfaced after the Democratic presidential nominee George McGovern was routed in the 1972 general election. That defeat made the party bosses innovate a complementary role for themselves to ensure that the eventual nominee was electable. They will also vote to choose a candidate in case of a stalemate -- when a candidate fails to win the 2025 elected delegates required for the nomination.
Not since the 1984 nomination race between vice president Walter Mondale and Sen. Gary Hart has a democratic primary election been as evenly contested as the one in progress between Obama and Clinton. Mondale was put over the top only after he mounted an intense campaign for super-delegates.
In recent interviews, many super-delegates expressed concern about a growing fear among voters that the nomination process may be stolen by super-delegates -- one that may witness the spectacle of a brokered convention -- reminiscent of the 1968 Chicago convention, with its violence in the streets and vitriol inside the hall.
Despite his meteoric rise in the Democratic primary elections, Obama is considered a neophyte in national politics. His lack of a military background, executive decision-making, and foreign policy experience is his Achilles heel -- a shortcoming that is being raised by his Democratic rival Sen. Clinton and the possible Republican presidential nominee John McCain at every step.
Obama and his team counter by saying that the experience of both McCain and Clinton took us to the "unwise" war in Iraq that cost over 3,000 American lives and $700 billion -- not counting hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives obliterated. Besides, both Bill Clinton and George Bush, former governors, were elected presidents though they had little military and foreign policy experience.
Interestingly, what separates Obama and Clinton is not policy differences in their positions, it is, rather, distinctively demographic. Women, senior citizens, Latinos, rural dwellers, and blue-collar workers are Clintonites, while Obamites include people under 30, blacks, urban dwellers, and affluent white-collar professionals.
Obama, however, won 11 state primaries in a row by making inroads with white women and blue-collar workers, who were considered to be Clinton supporters.
In a Zogby national presidential poll Obama leads 14% over Clinton. He leads John McCain by 7%. This survey, conducted over the period of February 13-16, included 1,105 likely voters nationwide (plus minus 3%).
Obama's advantage over Clinton spans most of the ideological spectrum -- he leads by 23% among progressives at the far left; by 16% among extreme liberals; and by 8% among moderates. Clinton leads over Obama by 14% among likely Democratic voters who consider themselves conservatives.
His lead against McCain stems from his strong base among voters under 65 years old, and among women and independents. Among blacks he leads 80% to 3% with 18% undecided. Only among white voters does Obama lose to McCain by a 47% to 41 % margin with 12% undecided.
Obama does not have the stigma of slave ancestry (Kenyan father and white American mother), nor is he a product of the early American civil rights movements. Some black civil rights leaders think of him as not black enough -- a black man who acts like a white.
However, his childhood was not any different from poor black or poor white children. That may be a reason why his messages transcend race and enthrall blacks and whites alike.
The US, with roughly 6% of the world's population, imprisons 20% of the world's prisoners -- the vast majority being men of colour. A recent report released by TV Channel MSNBC shows that about 16% of black men in their 20s, instead of being in college, are serving times in prison, while almost 60% of those in their early 30s have spent time in prison. Human Rights Watch reports that, nationwide, blacks are incarcerated 8.2 times the rate of whites.
Understandably, Obama's message of hope and change encompasses many of the aspirations of black Americans and poor whites. He believes that electing John McCain will be embracing Bush's failed policies, which fanned the flames of anti-American sentiment stretching over all continents. Electing Clinton will be more of the same -- making her a Democratic establishment president.
Obama passionately addresses the immediate need for America's energy independence, and automobile fuel-efficiency. He promises to end the Iraq war by bringing the American occupying army from Iraq within a year. His quoting of John F. Kennedy: "We mustn't negotiate with our enemies out of fear but mustn't fear to negotiate," is gaining momentum with the electorate. He also promised to close the "torture camp" -- the infamous Guantanamo Bay prison on Cuban coast.
Racism in America will not end with Obama's winning the presidency. Glen Ford of Black America says that an Obama presidency will free white people from the burden of having to listen to historical black complaints of the legacies of slavery.
Obama's message of hope for the hopeless, change from the past, and promises for the future has captivated the imagination of millions of the disgruntled American voters, and transcended race, colour and income brackets.
All this augurs well for America -- and what is good for America must also be good for the rest of the world.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments