Special ON CLIMATE CONFERENCE 2011

Capabilities of and threats to Bangladesh

Dr. Arun Kumar Lahiry

Left: Climate refugees in own country. Right: Occurrence of cyclones has increased in frequency. Photo: STAR

Briefly the definition and causes of climate change (CC) are: [1] increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission following industrial revolution; [2] increased GHGs level in the atmosphere; [3] more heat energy from sunlight absorbed by increased GHGs and reemitted in the atmosphere; [4] overall increase in the temperature of the planet; and [5] changes in the precipitation and wind pattern along with the temperature. It is proven that the CC is the results of greenhouse effects (GHEs) evidenced by intensified natural disasters, melting of polar icecaps and rising up of sea levels. Most of the world's population lives near coasts, so any changes, which might cause sea levels to rise, could have a potentially disastrous impact. The GHGs allow shortwave solar radiation to enter the Earth's atmosphere, but help to stop long wave radiation from escaping, thus traps heat, raising the Earth's temperature, an excess of these gases helps trap more heat and can lead to global warming (GW). Currently the Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is considering that Carbon dioxide, Methane, Nitrous oxide, Hydorfluorocarbons, Perfluorocarbons, and Sulfurhexafluoride are the GHGs responsible for GW. The Human Development Report-1998 of the United Nations states that environmental damage almost always hits those living in poverty the hardest. According to the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change-2006 of Nicholas Stern, the poorest developing countries will be hit earliest and hardest by CC, even though they have contributed little to causing the problem. Bangladesh threatened to be one of the first, and surely will be one of the major victims for the country is extremely vulnerable to CC -- more than most other nations on Earth. Thus it is now well known that Bangladesh, an LDC, has become the worst victim of global CC with the lowest CO2 emission of 0.2 ton/person/year. Recently Bianchizza has independently reported in London based Tiempo (Vol. 77, Oct., 2010), the capabilities of and threats to Bangladesh: Strengths: Ability to diversify income sources; strong social structures based on cooperative principles; traditional knowledge on the damages from deforestation, knowledge about agriculture amongst both men and women; traditional system for communal pooling of assets (borga); capacity to adopt new crops more suitable for new weather conditions, learning from experiences in other regions; very strong social network and cooperation amongst the women (knowledge sharing, assistance); good cost effective crop management; good awareness of issues and possible solutions, with systems to update information; information sharing between men and women; women's participation in agricultural activities and decision making; social cooperation for research and work; and diversified activities (animal reading) as income sources. Weaknesses: Very low financial capital; very low education levels; unawareness about climate change and its impact on crops; no strategy to overcome threats to agriculture; fatalistic attitude towards worsened environmental conditions; very low social position of women -- information is gender-locked; little or partial understanding of the causes of water-logging; little understanding and sense of ownership of flood protection strategies (raised households) adopted by NGOs; very confused interpretation of information on climate change and its impacts and its relation to crop cultivation; and agriculture knowledge locked in hands of men. Opportunities: The need for transport in the area due to a lack of infrastructure provides different employment opportunities; further training and support on best agricultural practices available; NGO activities to raise households; the empowerment of women at decision-making levels, given the migration of men to the mainland; involvement in research; and learning opportunities from neighbouring communities. Threats: Increased soil salinity; unpredictability and increased intensity of cyclones and floods; land erosion by the river; intense cold spells; water-logging; changing rain patterns and a lack of rain; increased intensity of droughts; unpredictability of future changes in climate; incomprehensible information from the Agriculture Department; temptation to get microcredit loans; misleading information from local political leaders; land is very low and extremely exposed to flooding; following a poor harvest there is no money to buy new hybrid seeds for higher crop production; and loss of traditional local verities of crops and vegetables. We should know the CC aspects, so that the risks are reduced, vulnerabilities adapted and impacts mitigated with more resilience. A known problem is better than unknown; 50% problems are solved through mental, ethical and indigenous preparation. A united and known effort is always welcomed for better achievement. While Bangladesh should prepare from within, it needs proper global attention to squarely face a global problem imposed on her with appreciable global support.
The writer is an environmentalist.