Restive Hormuz puts Bangladesh’s LNG lifeline in peril

Bangladesh’s energy security remains heavily tethered to the stability of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime gateway connecting the Gulf and global markets, as more than half of the country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports passed through this critical chokepoint in 2025.

An Iranian Revolutionary Guards senior official said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and Iran will fire on any ship ​trying to pass, Iranian media reported. The statement marks Tehran's most explicit warning since it announced the closure of the export route on Saturday. The move threatens to choke a fifth of global oil flows and send crude prices sharply higher.

Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) accounted for over 50 percent of Bangladesh’s total LNG supplies last year, according to data from Kpler Insight and Wood Mackenzie.

In 2025, Bangladesh sourced approximately 3.6 million tonnes of LNG from the Middle East, with Qatar serving as the primary exporter.

While the region is a global gas-producing powerhouse, the vast majority of its exports are transported via specialised ships rather than pipelines, making maritime routes through the Strait indispensable for Bangladesh, just like many other nations.

Qatar has solidified its position as the world’s second-largest LNG player, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global supplies, according to a Financial Times (FT) report. In 2024, around 13 percent of global natural gas demand was met through LNG supplies, according to Shell LNG Outlook 2025.

Data from Kpler Insight shows that while China and India remain the largest importers of Qatari LNG, Bangladesh, alongside Pakistan, ranks among the top Asian buyers reliant on the region.

In 2025, Pakistan received 99 percent of its LNG from Qatar and the UAE, while both India and Bangladesh depended on these two nations for more than half of their requirements.

The only other major producer on the Arabian Peninsula, Oman, operates export facilities outside the Strait of Hormuz, allowing shipments to continue even if the Gulf becomes inaccessible. However, Qatari production dwarfs that of its neighbours, making the Strait the single most important passage for Bangladesh’s energy imports.

Until 2022, Russia was the world’s biggest exporter of LNG, but its sales have plummeted since its war on Ukraine began. Now, the US is the world’s largest exporter of LNG, followed by Qatar and Australia.

Analysts warn that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would result in a net loss of about 86 billion cubic metres of LNG, or 15 percent of global supply. Such a shock would trigger intense global competition, with Asian buyers forced to outbid European markets for US cargoes to replace lost volumes.

For Bangladesh, where LNG is vital for power generation, any disruption to this route poses a direct threat to domestic costs for households and businesses.

With global LNG plants already running at maximum capacity, experts suggest there is little room for alternative supplies in the short term. While the huge Golden Pass facility in the US is due to start this year, it will need to ramp up steadily before it can reach full output, according to the FT.