Zahid Hussain

Over the last 50 years of Bangladesh’s existence, we have seen many finance ministers. AMA Muhith was among those few who this nation will remember for making the job appear joyful and free from the pains of balancing difficult trade-offs amid resource constraints.

Inflation is rising in Bangladesh as it is in several advanced and emerging economies. Increased headline inflation in February was driven by a spike in food inflation. The 12-month moving average inflation has been on an upward trend since the November 2019 to October 2020 period.

The economic damage from supply disruptions triggered by the confluence of events around the Russian invasion of Ukraine would be severe in some countries and industries and less so in others depending on the depth and breadth of economic ties,

There was no doubt that the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in FY21 was better than the growth in FY20 even though the pandemic was present with all its ferocity in both years.

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data provides a somewhat mixed picture on how labour is benefitting from the ongoing economic recovery in Bangladesh.

Consumer price growth has spiked, driven by non-food inflation which is approaching 7 per cent. Inflation in Bangladesh is catching up with global trends. As in the case of the rest of the world, cost-push has been the most important driver which in turn came from increases in energy prices. 

Timely revisions to data on GDP and its components determine the accuracy of national accounts estimates and their comparability across countries.

Corporate Bangladesh is increasingly demanding the easing of draconian restrictions on outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) as they seek to diversify earnings. Indeed, OFDI can yield financial, intangible capability, and tangible capacity returns, thus complementing the development benefits realised through trade, migration and inward FDI.

While the pandemic waves on, the budget should focus on crisis management, prioritising spending on health, targeting fiscal support to distressed families and enterprises, restoring the functionality of education, and building on the resilience demonstrated by agriculture while keeping an eye on revenues. A business-as-usual budget like last year will miss the boat again.

In-person schooling in Bangladesh has remained shut since March 2020. Children have already lost a full year, equivalent to 0.6 learning-adjusted years of schooling based on the learning gap implied by the World Bank (WB) in its Human Capital Index (2020) for Bangladesh.

We are going through an unprecedented time, which is economically troublesome.

The new year always carries the legacy of the year gone by. Expectations for the new year are naturally conditioned by these legacies. This is true every year. But 2021 is starting from an exceptional footing. Preceded by a prolonged 10 months of unprecedented trauma and fear all the world over, 2021 inherits the legacies of a year that will go down in history as the most cursed in last hundred years.

Next fiscal is likely to be one of the most challenging years from a fiscal management perspective, among others.

Social distancing has proven to be an effective weapon for dampening the spread of coronavirus.

The coronavirus-infected economy requires dealing with the disease burden and the economic devastation caused by measures to contain the virus.

Bangladesh’s restart is happening, whether science supports it or not.

The government is hard-pressed in responding to the raging coronavirus pandemic with every resource, instrument, policy and strategy it can get its hands on.

Early data on the poverty impact of the coronavirus-induced coma of the economy, as Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman characterises it, is rather alarming.

The historical novelty of the coronavirus shock has unravelled as the lockdown continues. Bangladesh’s economic expansion is projected to face a drastic brake.

Are we doing enough to support households dependent on labour income from the formal and informal sectors in this time of distress?