Why Japan should be considered one of the favourites in the World Cup 2026

In an era where tactical precision defines the world’s elite, Japan have emerged as a formidable force capable of dismantling even the most storied European giants. Under the pure guidance of Hajime Moriyasu, the Samurai Blue have adapted to the system that has been rendered.

Japan is a power to reckon with, rather than a mere contender for glory, and having a development model and team that is built for that.

The Samurai Blues’ resilience against European giants

Japan’s 2-2 draw with Netherlands in the World Cup on Monday kept them unbeaten against the European giants in normal time, keeping the streak alive. Since the 2022 World Cup, their dominance includes two wins over Germany, a win over Spain, and this year’s away victory against England. The only blemish was the 2022 World Cup shootout loss to Croatia after a 1-1 draw.

What makes them stand out is how they manage to keep control of the game. By not retreating too deep and staying compact, they start their attack at full pace. Using a 4-2-3-1 and a 4-3-3 formation they are able to rotate easily, so that the team looks stretched.

Adapting to the European style

Hajime Moriyasu has brought with him a tactical blueprint that flourishes on discipline, calculated passes and movements. His team's pressing and ability to set up pressing triggers mean that teams from Europe are often left in awkward situations.

The first attack is to block out central passing lanes and wingers are told to "jump" to the touchline to secure the ball in wide areas. When possession is recovered, the move to the far side is instant and well directed. Full-backs are used in well-controlled, high intensity rushes instead of being used all around the field, which helps to conserve energy for the last 20 minutes when Japan often wins late. In the build up, players in the middle of the field are kept low and compact for a safe outlet and center-backs are asked to move into the midfield when the opposition is pushing high if space is created, which is the opposite approach to the high pressing in Europe.

Massive wins that built beliefs

Japan went on to beat Spain in the 2022 World Cup with clever pressing and quick changes of possession capped off when Spain became European Champions in 2024. The plan has been successful on European soil, with a 4-1 victory over Germany in September 2023. The scoreline of 1-0 at England this March was to evidence consistency, making them the only South Asian team to beat them at Wembley.

The 2-2 draw with the Netherlands at the World Cup 2026 is a perfect addition. When the game went against them, Japan took the heat and responded with excellence. The match did not end with a clean sheet, but a performance with intent. Add to this the narrow victories over Scotland and Iceland and you get range.

In the case of Japan, winning a fight, or winning on the break, is not only possible, but it can be replicated.