Arsenal vs Man City title race: What happens if points are equal?

The race for the Premier League title has intensified, with Arsenal and Manchester City locked in a potentially historic battle. With both teams capable of finishing the season on equal points, the outcome could come down to fine margins defined by league rules.

Arsenal strengthened their position at the top of the table with a convincing 3–0 victory over Fulham. This result extended their lead over Manchester City to six points. However, City hold a crucial advantage, having played two fewer matches.

If both teams win all their remaining fixtures, they would finish level on points—something that has only happened once before in Premier League history.

According to Rule C.17 of the Premier League Handbook, the standings are determined using the following criteria: Goal difference, goals scored, points in head-to-head matches, away goals in head-to-head matches, playoff match.

At present, Arsenal lead in both goal difference (+41 vs +37) and goals scored (67 vs 66), putting them in a strong position if the points are level.

Despite Arsenal’s statistical edge, Manchester City hold the advantage in head-to-head results. Pep Guardiola’s side defeated Arsenal 2–1 at the Etihad Stadium after a 1–1 draw earlier in the season. This gives City four points compared to Arsenal’s one in their direct encounters.

This detail is crucial: if both teams finish level on points, goal difference, and goals scored, Manchester City would be crowned champions based on superior head-to-head performance.

As a result, a playoff match will not be required this season.

The only previous instance of the title being decided on goal difference occurred in the 2011/12 season. On that dramatic final day, Manchester City secured the title ahead of Manchester United thanks to a superior goal difference.

That season is remembered for Sergio Aguero’s last-minute goal against Queens Park Rangers, sealing a 3–2 comeback and one of the most iconic moments in football history.

The title race remains finely balanced. Arsenal currently hold the advantage through their points lead and superior goal statistics. However, Manchester City’s games in hand and head-to-head superiority keep them firmly in contention.

As the season approaches its conclusion, even the smallest detail--goals scored, conceded, or direct results--could ultimately decide who lifts the Premier League trophy.