What Nepal’s devastating floods teach us about climate vulnerability
Nepal is a natural disaster hotspot, but over the past several years, the scale of damage caused by disasters have grown severe. The country experienced the severe Gorkha earthquake in 2015, monsoon floods and landslides in 2017 and 2024, Melamchi floods and landslides in 2021, the Jajarkot earthquake in 2023, and floods, landslides, and a glacial lake outburst in 2025. The latest flash floods on August 26, 2026, triggered by glacial collapse and subsequent landslide near the Nepal-Tibet border, have had a devastating impact, killing more than 1,000 people while nearly 4,000 remain missing, and causing widespread displacement and extensive damage to hydropower plants, roads, bridges, settlements and livelihoods.
Flood impacts are multi-dimensional, encompassing both economic and social aspects. These impacts will be felt long after the floodwaters recede. The cost of the reconstruction process will be determined in the coming days. But given the extent of the damage, it is expected to strain Nepal’s limited resources. The actual cost of long-term rehabilitation and climate-resilient rebuilding of the economy could be assessed after a transparent damage assessment and livelihood restoration.
The Nepal government has taken several measures, including mobilising security forces, disaster management agencies, local authorities and health services for rescue, evacuation, medical assistance and relief distribution. It has also sought international assistance, such as rescue expertise, medical supplies, forensic support, and finance. However, the disaster has exposed constraints in technology, transport, healthcare, coordination and information.
The disaster has turned into a national catastrophe in the Himalayan country because of a combination of factors, including glacial instability, heavy rainfall, fragile mountain terrain, unplanned settlement, and insufficient infrastructure. There are discussions about whether, and to what extent, climate change plays a role. Scientists can determine that. However, rising temperatures and shrinking Himalayan glaciers are clearly increasing the region’s vulnerability to glacial floods and the resulting disasters.
Last week’s flash floods are a cruel reminder of the profound climate injustice facing vulnerable developing countries, including Bangladesh. Despite its measly contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—0.1 percent—Nepal is experiencing increasing climate-related shocks. Similarly, Bangladesh has been increasingly experiencing flash floods, cyclones, salinity intrusion, extreme heat and sea-level rise even though its GHG contribution is insignificant.
Both Bangladesh and Nepal have limited fiscal space, technology, institutional capacity, and insurance coverage. A single disaster can erase development progress, harm livelihoods, and increase poverty. Consequently, governments often reallocate resources from sectors like infrastructure, health and education to emergency response and rebuilding efforts. Such actions have lasting effects. For Nepal, climate variability significantly contributes to food insecurity and poverty. Experts fear that if climate impacts are not managed, the country’s GDP could shrink by at least 7 percent by 2050.
Natural disasters cannot always be averted. This is especially true for a mountainous, climate-vulnerable country such as Nepal. But the scale of human disasters, infrastructure damage and livelihood losses can be minimised through preparedness, effective institutions, and climate-resilient development. Nepal’s National Adaptation Plan for 2021-2050 recognises the country’s exposure to floods, landslides, avalanches, glacial lake outburst floods, heatwaves, droughts and other climate-related hazards.
The first task is establishing a comprehensive, multi-hazard early warning system. Effective warning systems depend on timely delivery of information to vulnerable populations and on ensuring they know how to respond. Nepal’s experience shows that community-based early warning systems can save lives during the monsoon, underscoring the importance of regular evacuation drills, building public awareness, and clearly marked shelters. Bangladesh, too, has built a resilient disaster management system over the decades. These countries and others who are climate-vulnerable should invest more systematically in early warning systems, risk mapping, climate-resilient infrastructure, safer land-use planning, and community preparedness. Critical facilities, including schools, hospitals, roads, bridges, and power stations, should be designed or upgraded to withstand future climate hazards. The Nepal disaster also highlights the need for cross-border sharing of hydrological and meteorological data, particularly because rivers, glaciers, and extreme-weather systems don’t follow national boundaries. Disaster preparedness should be integrated into economic planning and public investment, rather than viewed solely as an emergency response after losses occur.
Second, land-use regulations and building codes need to be strengthened and enforced effectively, particularly in flood-prone and landslide-prone regions. Settlements and vital infrastructure must avoid unstable hillsides, high-risk floodplains, and other hazardous areas. Earthquake-resistant standards should be compulsory, and older schools, hospitals, bridges, and public buildings should be retrofitted. The World Bank notes that many poorly built structures in Nepal remain vulnerable to earthquakes, floods, and landslides.
Third, local governments and communities must be central to preparedness efforts. Municipal authorities require current risk maps, trained emergency teams, evacuation strategies, rescue tools, and supplies of food, medicine, and clean water. Sound coordination among national agencies, security forces, municipalities, hospitals, and humanitarian groups are of utmost importance. Disaggregated spatial information for disaster risk assessment is crucial for disaster risk planning and management. Access to real-time, location-specific data would help local agencies plan and respond more efficiently.
Fourth, developed countries need to assume a much larger share of responsibility. Their past and present emissions have been the main causes of global warming, while countries that contributed the least face some of the worst impacts. Climate support should be viewed not as charity but as a duty rooted in responsibility, fairness, and justice. Developed nations need to cut their emissions more rapidly and provide sufficient, predictable and accessible financial aid to the vulnerable countries.
A larger share of climate finance should be provided as grants rather than loans. Forcing vulnerable countries to borrow for disasters to which they contributed little worsens both climate and debt injustices. Funding needs to support adaptation, early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, emergency preparedness, and loss and damage, not just emissions reduction projects. Equally vital are technology transfer, technical expertise, climate risk insurance, and rapid post-disaster financing. The 29th UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) pledge to mobilise at least $300 billion annually for developing countries by 2035 should be implemented transparently, given these countries’ greater needs. Access procedures must be streamlined so the poorest and most vulnerable nations can receive assistance before disasters turn into humanitarian crises. Nepal’s tragedy should reinforce the global commitment to turn climate promises into prompt, measurable actions.
Ultimately, recovery should align with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, adopted at the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai, Japan in 2015. It emphasises “Build Back Better,” in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. The goal is not just to react after disasters but to prevent natural hazards from becoming ongoing human tragedies.
Dr Fahmida Khatun is an economist and distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). Views expressed in this article are the author’s own.
Views expressed in this article are the author's own.
Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries, and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments