High fertility isn’t good news

It is quite a surprise that, at a time when fertility rates in the rest of South Asia are falling, Bangladesh's total fertility rate (TFR) reportedly rose to 2.4 children per woman in 2025, up from 2.3 in 2019. In a country that is already struggling with high population density, food insecurity, and overburdened health services, this is not good news.

More babies do not necessarily translate to a bigger demographic dividend. In the current context, more young people will mean a large proportion of the population being poorly educated, malnourished, having little or no skills, no job opportunities, and an uncertain future. We are already seeing the effects of these gaps in increased substance abuse, crime, and ill health, especially among women. Bangladesh’s success with its family planning programme is now a thing of the past. Since the Covid pandemic, there have been severe disruptions in the programme and fewer household visits by field workers, one of the most effective ways to reach young couples.

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A government programme that specifically financed most of the contraceptive procurement expired in 2024. Although the interim government had approved the project in November 2025, the procurement was released only in April this year. A gap of almost one year in the supply of free contraceptives, along with a 25 percent vacancy in field-level posts, has led to significant drops in contraceptive use among women in lower-income households, leading to more unplanned pregnancies.

Another contributor to the problem is child marriage, which has been on the rise since the pandemic as more households fell into poverty. Compounded with almost zero awareness about reproductive health and contraceptive use, this rise has led to increasing adolescent pregnancies. The data puts it at 92 births per 1,000 girls aged between 15-19 years, up from 83 per 1,000 girls in 2019.

The present government has acknowledged the problem and plans to replenish depleted stocks of contraceptives over the next few weeks. It has also decided to focus more on poorer and marginalised groups where fertility is high and access to contraceptives is low. While this is encouraging, the issue of population management requires comprehensive strategies that will take into account the ground realities. Apart from making contraceptives available to lower-income groups, public awareness is the next big challenge. The government must fill up the vacancies for field workers to ensure that house-to-house calls can be reinvigorated. School curricula must include lessons on reproductive health. The law against child marriage must be enforced strongly, and the practice must be discouraged vocally by the government and by society as a whole. Religious leaders, especially, must be brought on board to convince communities that having fewer children will place less financial burden on the family and ultimately improve wellbeing. Unless we commit to providing young people with good nutrition, health, education, and security, a high fertility rate will convert a demographic dividend into a demographic burden.