Trump stuck with no exit in sight

With President Donald Trump’s war against Iran now in its sixth month, a mix of threats and diplomacy has underscored the bind he faces in trying to end a conflict he once claimed would last weeks.

Trump is caught between backing an interim deal being negotiated by Iran and Oman that could give Tehran new authority over the Strait of Hormuz, or escalating with fresh airstrikes that risk prolonging the crisis. Analysts say the first option would hand Iran its biggest concession since the war began in February, while the second could carry political peril ahead of November’s US midterms.

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Maintaining the uneasy status quo — a blockade of Iran’s ports and periodic retaliation — offers no clear exit either. “It’s a menu of bad options,” said Aaron David Miller, a former US negotiator, noting Trump may have to accept a new Iranian reality in the strait.

A US official told Reuters any “temporary” shipping routes would remain open without oversight. Yet Secretary of State Marco Rubio insists the strait must stay an international waterway free of Iranian control. Trump has contradicted Rubio before, and analysts warn he could again.

High gasoline prices, low approval ratings, and public opposition to the war have narrowed Trump’s room to maneuver.

His threats have failed to force Iran to yield, raising the likelihood that Washington may compromise. Reopening the strait is seen as essential for renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, though experts doubt a final peace deal is near.

Iranian sources say proposed terms would give Tehran some control over Gulf shipping. Trump has suggested a deal is imminent, but Iranian officials say details remain unresolved. Even if talks resume, skepticism persists after a June memorandum unraveled.

Trump canceled new strikes after regional partners urged diplomacy, but warned of harsher action if talks fail.

Analysts note concerns about US missile stockpiles may also have influenced his decision. Iran has threatened retaliation against Gulf allies if attacked again.

With midterms looming, Trump faces a war that has achieved few of its goals. “The Islamic Republic is trying to force Trump into a lose-lose proposition,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.