Reserves, remittances lift Bangladesh’s external sector outlook: GED Report

Bangladesh's external sector improved last year as reserves and remittances grew, though trade remained unstable.

Exports dipped in April and June before recovering, while garment shipments and imports showed mid‑year declines followed by modest rebounds later in 2025, according to a government report.

Gross reserves climbed from $24.35 billion in November 2024 to $32.34 billion in October 2025, while BPM6 reserves rose from $18.61 billion to $27.58 billion.

According to the Economic Update & Outlook November 2025 report by the General Economics Division and the Bangladesh Planning Commission, stronger inflows and prudent management drove the steady rise.

Remittances also provided resilience, consistently surpassing the previous year's levels.

Inflows peaked in March, September, and December 2024, and again in May and October 2025.

The October inflow stood at $2.56 billion, remaining higher than last year's $2.40 billion.

Trade indicators were more volatile. Export earnings fluctuated, dipping sharply in April and June 2025 before recovering moderately.

Export earnings were $3.80 billion in September 2024, hitting a peak of $4.77 billion in July 2025, then declining to $3.82 billion in October.

Readymade garments (RMG) continued to dominate exports, mirroring overall trade trends.

In October, RMG exports stood at $3.02 billion, though still below the mid-year peak. Non-RMG exports followed a similar mid-year slowdown before improving later.

Import payments remained unstable, marked by a sharp contraction in June 2025 — the lowest in the series — followed by a rebound in July and renewed fluctuations through September.

These shifts reflected global demand changes, domestic import rules, and commodity price movements.

Despite trade volatility, the report said rising reserves and strong remittances contributed to an improving external position as Bangladesh entered late 2025.

The report noted that the economic outlook is cautiously optimistic as the country approaches its February 2026 general election, with the Asian Development Bank forecasting GDP growth of around 5 percent in FY26, supported by remittances and exports.

However, risks including persistent inflation, weak business confidence, and a fragile banking sector could weigh on demand and investment.

Election-related spending and potential disruptions may also pressure inflation and the foreign exchange market.