Fuel price hikes to stoke inflation, but ministers see limited impact

After the onset of the US-Israel war on Iran, some policymakers initially took a firm stance, publicly claiming credit for not adjusting fuel prices to shield consumers from global shocks. They argued that they did not want to pass the burden onto the people.

However, the government could not maintain its stance as it quickly unravelled under fiscal and market realities.

Within weeks, the government reversed course. It raised the price of a 12 kg liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinder by 45 percent after two successive hikes in April.

On April 18, it also pushed fuel prices to record highs: diesel rose by Tk 15 per litre to Tk 115, octane by Tk 20 to Tk 140, petrol by Tk 19 to Tk 135, and kerosene by Tk 18 to Tk 130.

The scale and timing of these adjustments suggest that fiscal constraints, subsidy pressures, and external account vulnerabilities outweighed earlier political commitments.

From a macroeconomic perspective, such hikes drive costs and thus prices of commodities in the supply chain, as higher energy costs spread through transport, production, and supply chains, often creating second-round effects in import-dependent economies like Bangladesh.

A recent report on inflation dynamics of Bangladesh by the central bank showed gas price hikes have pushed up energy inflation to 14.9 percent during the January-March quarter of the current fiscal year 2025-26 from 14.4 percent in the previous quarter.

Economists say the effect of hiking petroleum prices is going to be felt soon, and consumers have already begun to feel the pinch. Transport costs for both passengers and freight have gone up. Farmers complained about the higher cost of harvesting rice and threshing the grains. Consumer goods companies are reducing pack sizes and squeezing margins to cope.

Yet, two ministers -- finance and commerce -- downplayed the inflationary risks.

According to a report published in this newspaper on April 20, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said, “It may increase or it may not. If the supply side remains stable, then prices may not rise.”

In reply to a question in the parliament, Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir said it was unlikely that the recent fuel price hike would exacerbate inflation, terming the adjustment “moderate.”

He said the 15 percent increase in diesel prices may raise commodity prices by around Tk 0.30 per kg. However, he said this would not have any major impact on overall inflation, which has remained around 9 percent for more than three years, deepening consumers’ woes.

The wage rate index for unskilled workers illustrates this trend. Inflation has outpaced wage growth for 50 consecutive months, steadily eroding the purchasing power of consumers, particularly those in middle- and lower-income groups. It means that real wages have been in the negative for more than four years.

Consumers are set to face further pressure as the commerce ministry has allowed refiners to raise soybean oil prices by Tk 4 per litre, or 2 percent.

The situation worsened by earlier supply disruptions triggered by the Iran War, which had already pushed up global energy and transport costs. Diesel-dependent sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and transport are now under additional pressure, raising concerns that the increased costs will eventually be passed on to consumers in an already high-inflation economy.

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said the recent fuel price hike is likely to ripple across the economy through a “multiplier effect.”

He noted that fuel acts as a “barometer of commodity prices,” meaning its increase will inevitably influence a wide range of goods, though not uniformly.

He explained that the current situation reflects “cost-push inflation,” driven by rising input costs rather than demand.

However, he cautioned against overstating the scale of the impact, emphasising that the extent of price increases will depend on how significant fuel costs are within each product’s overall cost structure.

“If fuel accounts for a portion of total costs, a 15 percent increase in fuel prices does not translate into a 15 percent rise in final prices,” he said, illustrating that the actual effect would be proportionally smaller.

Rahman stressed that while some level of price increase is unavoidable, the degree to which it affects consumers will depend heavily on market behaviour and oversight.

“The pass-through to retail prices depends significantly on market management,” he said, warning that unchecked responses, such as transport operators raising fares disproportionately, could worsen inflationary pressures.

He also underscored the growing importance of regulatory monitoring, particularly in sectors with administered pricing, and highlighted the need for stronger safeguards for vulnerable groups.

“For low-income people, even a small increase in prices creates significant hardship,” he said, adding that effective implementation of social safety measures will be critical to easing the burden.

Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development, echoed similar concerns, warning that higher energy prices would inevitably feed into overall price levels.

“If energy and oil prices increase, our price levels will increase. This is almost inevitable,” he said. “There is a ‘one-to-one’ correspondence, as the transmission channel is very deep.”

He explained that a fuel price increase typically triggers broader inflationary pressures across the economy.

“When oil prices increase, we’ve seen a 15-20 percent increase across different varieties. It exerts pressure on other supply chain elements, which overall impacts our prices. They might be saying it for political reasons, but the economic reality is that this will fuel inflationary pressure further,” he added.

Razzaque also noted that the impact is more severe in Bangladesh compared to other countries due to already elevated inflation.

“It’s not just happening in Bangladesh; many countries have already increased their fuel prices. The problem for Bangladesh is that our baseline inflation rate was already high, hovering around 9 to 10 percent. When this impact is added, it creates even more pressure. In countries like Cambodia, where inflation was lower, it was easier to absorb. But for us, it’s almost inevitable that prices will go up,” he said.

He also raised concerns over inflation measurement, especially LPG pricing. He said the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) relies on government-set rates, which may not reflect market reality.

Razzaque added that official figures could be misleading if based on listed prices rather than what consumers actually pay, urging surveys of real market prices for more accurate inflation data.