Indo-Pak composite dialogue

But how? One notion was reflected in what Indian foreign minister Natwar Singh expressed while refering to the prevailing situation that 'the dialogue provides hope, not salvation'. Indeed the diplomacy of dialogue is full of shenanigans to prolong a process indefinitely with a view to availing some advantage at an opportune time by one of the parties. But all remain hopeful of availing the advantage by outwitting the other.

Let alone Kashmir, Pakistan's core agenda in the dialogue, there was no tangible progress even on the less complicated subjects under the composite dialogue. There was no progress, for example, with regard to non-controversial Siachen issue, Wullar navigation project, Sir Creek, drug trafficking as well as economic and commercial cooperation and promotion of friendly exchanges in various fields. The talks of CBMs (confidence building measures) with regard to both nuclear and conventional arms also ended without achieving any breakthrough. Negotiation for a Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service was stuck over issue of documentation. There is however an understanding on opening up Khokrapar-Monabao rail link. But there too no date has been announced for the start of rail operation.

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For any bilateral dialogue between India and Pakistan the most difficult issue is that of Kashmir. Few however understand that no less difficult for such dialogue is the issue of nuclear relationship. If a nuclearised India and Pakistan want to be accepted by the rest of the world as part of the official nuclear club they have to first demonstrate their ability to manage their nuclear relationship in the most responsible manner. This has become all the more crucial because President Bush seems bent upon recasting the rules of the global nuclear game.

In keeping with the fate of negotiations on other bilateral issues the Indo-Pak talks on nuclear and conventional CBMs held in mid-December last in Islamabad did not come to a fruition. India wanted to keep any agreement on CBMs confined only to surface to surface missile. But Pakistan was for extending it to all categories of missile. While there seems to be no disagreement on nuclear CBMs it is equally urgent to consider mechanisms for reducing the conventional military tensions between the two countries because they often snowball into nuclear threat.

The initial round of renewed composite dialogue began on a promising note and a great deal of enthusiasm. Yet it failed to have a breakthrough in any direction. The whole process became like going and going round the mulberry bush achieving nothing. As its progress has been dampening last year will 2005 witness better results of composite dialogue between India and Pakistan? The South Asia watchers are of the view that there can be breakthrough in negotiations on almost all issues of dialogue provided New Delhi and Islamabad are prepared to match their words with visible gestures, concrete actions and due seriousness. While both India and Pakistan are entitled to try to achieve as much of their original goals as possible they have also to recognise that 'give and take' is an essential ingredient of diplomatic negotiation.

As regards Kashmir, however complicated the issue has become over the years it can be resolved if the parties concerned do have a will to resolve it. Since the Kashmir dispute has the potential to cause possible nuclear holocaust the dispute must be surgically removed and should not be left to poison relations between India and Pakistan. It will be sad indeed if the Indo-Pak rapprochement that started with the Musharraf-Vajpayee statement of January 6, 2004 ends in futility. An enlightened generation of both the countries must be able to sieze the opportunity after 50 years of wasted opportunities and two full-fledged wars.

As the composite dialogue moves on it will be soon clear whether India wants to consolidate status quo which perhaps go in her favour or will be able to look beyond entrenched attitude and established policies during 2005. Pakistan will be wise to shed its policy of using Kashmir anymore as one of the media of its domestic politics. The composite dialogue is not a matter of every day or year. It comes in a while and only people with some greatness make its optimum use.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.