US EXIT FROM NUKE DEAL

IRAN'S HARD CHOICES

Iran finds itself in a tricky balancing act as it weighs a response to US President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of a landmark nuclear deal. "They need to find a response that keeps the Europeans on their side but also shows they can't just be pushed around," said a Western diplomat in Tehran. "That seems pretty difficult." Some analysts say Iran could retaliate by causing trouble for US interests across the Middle East, where the Islamic Republic has widespread influence and large proxy forces. For now, Iranian officials have suggested there are three broad responses.

RESUME HIGH-LEVEL ENRICHMENT

Speaking immediately after Trump's announcement, Rouhani said he had instructed the Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation "to take the necessary measures for future actions so that if necessary we can resume industrial enrichment without limit". But Rouhani also said he will wait for weeks to consult with other signatories. The head of the organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, has said in recent months that Iran is ready to resume high-level uranium enrichment to 20 percent "within five days". The deal restricted Iran to enrichment to around 3.5 percent, the level needed for nuclear power stations.

 

STAY IN THE AGREEMENT

Rouhani said on Monday that Iran would stay in the agreement even if the United States pulled out. But he wants assurances that Iran's interests -- primarily trade benefits from the deal -- will be preserved. "Either what we want from the nuclear deal is guaranteed by the non-American parties, or it is not the case and we will follow our own path," he said in a statement. Europe has been adamant that it wants to preserve the accord, but Washington has already threatened that European businesses in Iran must be wound down within six months.

 

LOOK EAST TO CHINA, RUSSIA

Russia and China are less exposed to US markets and therefore better placed to resist Washington's economic pressure. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said recently that a top priority in Iran's foreign policy today was "preferring East to West". That reflects Iran's strengthening of relations with Russia, an ally in the Syrian conflict, and with China, which has no qualms about its business ties to the Islamic republic.