Annapolis, Iran, Iraq, Israel and the lame duck President
Nothing has changed since Annapolis. No Israeli actions have occurred in the field to change the relation with the Palestinians. The air bombardment in Gaza continues, and at least 32 Palestinians have been killed since Annapolis. Lupinsky, the Mayor of Jerusalem, justified the construction of 390 housing units in Abu Gneim, so called Har Homa in the area by saying that this will solve the demographic problems of the Jewish population of Jerusalem. However, with or without Annapolis, Israel continues to perceive the West Bank and the Gaza Strip as security problems and not as political ones. In Annapolis the US adopted this Israeli perception and appointed a general to deal with the Palestinians in any security cooperation contacts with the Israelis. General Jim Jones a former Chairman of NATO will take responsibility in this area. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen of the US Army, also received a security briefing from Israel concerning Annapolis on 9 December 2007 in his meeting with General Gabi Ashkenazi and Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Admiral Mullen, during his one-day visit, expressed his understanding for the Israeli strategic concerns, mainly on the Iranian front. Israelis gave special importance to this visit by briefing him about its regional concerns in order to understand its strategic assessments. However, Israel mainly considered the visit of this admiral important after the collapse of the political leadership coming from the White House as a result of the National Intelligence assessment. The Israeli military establishment tried to convince Admiral Mullen that this intelligence report is neither sufficient nor reliable, and that the Iranians have other intentions that did not appear in the National Intelligence report. It seemed that the report shocked the Bush Administration by decreasing the options of operating militarily against Iran. The US forces will now find it difficult to act against Iran. This may be what Admiral Mike Mullen tried to inform the Israelis. It appears that Israel will not try to act alone against Iran. In that sense, they accepted this American alert from Mike Mullen. What's more, they need the American umbrella in case of strategic regional ballistic warfare with Iran or with other countries. Consequently, we will not expect any attack against Iran from the US. The Bush Administration initiated this crisis with Iran in order to divert attention away from its failure in Iraq. This Administration did not imagine that such an occupation would be unbearable, but the reality is that Iraq has become a real burden and has prevented this Administration from acting in any other arena. Therefore, the Intelligence Report was a great salvation to the Bush Administration. Actually, we will not be surprised if the National Intelligence Agency creates a new report that will say that we were wrong in order to get out of Iraq. Nevertheless, as concerns Admiral Mike Mullen, he cannot act strongly or decisively in any form if such a report that has just been published. At the same time, behind him is a lame duck President, George Bush. However, even being a weak president does not prevent Bush from conducting political policy as if everything is usual. In several speeches he has asked for further sanctions against Iran, a policy that will be hard to implement. His regional policy in the Middle East is collapsing; he is losing in Iraq. The Sunnis are acting against the US. The Shiites, who had hoped to gain control of Iraq from the US have realized that it is impossible to obtain it easily and they have currently begun to cooperate with Iran and to act against the US. The Kurds started to concentrate on their area. At the same time they are allied with the Iraqi army in order to support the US interests. Turkey, however, has begun to contain the Kurds. Moreover, the Americans are also losing influence in Syria and Lebanon. In Lebanon they are outside the game of electing the new president. They have also begun new confidence building measures with Syria, both in Lebanon and in Iraq. I am not sure whether Admiral Mullen explained this strategic deterioration in the US foreign policy to his Israeli counterparts. Israel, however, perceived the strategic threats differently after the publication of the American intelligence report. Israel is mainly concentrating on Iraq and on the upgraded Iranian threat. They will make do with manufacturing nuclear weapons and will answer critics that they are surrounded by enemies and therefore need a defense capability. Israel will continue to accuse Iran of being a country that endangers the stability of the region. Iran will say the same about Israel. Finally, Israel will accuse Iran of supporting Hamas and Hezbollah. This will be the new strategic dynamic between Israel and Iran. Israel will try to upgrade the Iranian threats, and at the same time the Hezbollah threat and maybe Hamas, in order to justify the stagnation of the negative status in the process with the Palestinians as we approach 2008. The author is a journalist and member of The Arab Council for Foreign Relations
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