Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss
New challenge for scientists and policy makers
We can't afford losing all this.
Human generated changes in the global climate are widely accepted by scientists and policy makers. Bangladesh is very vulnerable to climate changes; may suffer the most severe impacts because it is low-lying densely populated country. With a one meter rise in sea level, one fifth of the nation's land and nearly 15 percent of the population would be threatened by inundation. Whereas its national economy strongly depends on agriculture, its associated landscape management and natural resources are also sensitive to climate change. The climate change threat for Bangladesh is related to development, which causes the most threatening impacts on the natural, social and economic systems of the country. The impact on the Bangladesh economy of climate change would be extremely adverse: an annual loss of $1 billion of GDP by 2010, $5 billion by 2070. The impacts of climate change, such as increased air and ocean temperatures, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events can directly and indirectly impact on biodiversity. The responsiveness of species to recent and past climate change raises the possibility that anthropogenic climate change could act as a major cause of extinctions in the near future. Climate change may render a quarter of land animals and plants extinct, according to a major study published in the journal Nature, unless greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced. Climate change over the past 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distribution and abundance of species worldwide. Climate change can affect the distributional area of each species independently. Climate change has already produced shifts in the distribution of some species, such as amphibians, grasses, migratory birds and butterflies. While over-exploitation, deforestation, habitat change to agriculture, pollution, and invasive species are being considered the most important current drivers of biodiversity loss in Bangladesh, climate change is expected to become increasingly important. A wide range of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, crustaceans, and above all the Royal Bengal Tiger will face extinction in Bangladesh due to climate change. For some species there will no longer be anywhere with a suitable climate to survive; in other cases they may be unable to reach distant regions where the climate is suitable. Other species may survive elsewhere only to face new threats, notably if the new area is covered by crops or urban sprawl. However, an essential first step in developing climate change response activities is to identify the specific threats to a species or ecosystem. For example, coral reefs are threatened by the bleaching that occurs with changes in ocean temperature and chemistry and forests and agricultural systems are vulnerable to increased incidents of disease and pest outbreaks as a result of changing climatic conditions. Once impacts and threats have been identified, monitoring the threats is essential in determining how the ongoing process of climate change is affecting ecosystems. Despite these implications, eradication of poverty is the country's highest priority, with climate change issues occupying a distinctly lower level of importance. The evidence for climate change now appears overwhelming. For policy takers to make the best informed decisions for adapting to these changes they will need significantly improved models of the effects of climate change on the distribution of species and habitats. To achieve this there will have to be much more ecological research into the climatic tolerance of species and habitats. Also dispersal ability of species needs to be understood, as the effect on the extinction rate could be dramatic should climate change proceed faster than species can disperse and colonise newly suitable locations. The potential to reduce the impact of climate change upon native species by adapting habitat management needs to be considered. A list of questions for ecology should produce a greater synergy between policy, practice and research, and could inform researchers and research funders as to where their efforts might best be focused. Which species are likely to be the best indicators of the effects of climate change? Which habitats and species might we lose completely because of climate change? What will be the ecological impacts of changing management pattern in response to climate change? What is the likely relationship between the extent of climate change and the pattern of species extinction? How does climate change interact with other ecological pressures like invasive species and habitat fragmentation to create synergistic effects? How can we increase the resilience of habitats and species to cope with climate change? How well suited is the protected area system for conserving biodiversity in the face of climate change and how can it be enhanced in light of this? How will changes to oceanographic conditions as a result of climate change affect marine ecosystems? What actions are required to recreate the full range of coastal landscapes, habitats and species distributions to compensate for their loss, for example as a result of sea-level rise? Bangladesh has got good opportunity for research on climate change and its impact on biodiversity as organisations such as SPARRSO, BARC, BFRI, BARI, Institute of Forestry, Institute of Marine Sciences and different universities have been actively involved in various studies on this area which is recognised in international arena. However, information about climate change related issues is scattered, incomplete and sometimes difficult to access whereas policy and development planning relies on this information. Despite an increased emphasis upon evidence-based environmental policy, it is widely accepted that there is too little information flow between scientists and policy makers. The popular perception amongst many researchers is that policies are often developed without sound evidence derived from research and that the results that are produced are not used to the extent that they could be to inform decision-making. Narrowing this gap would be very beneficial in generating policies that are based more objectively on sound science. Conversely, it is desirable that research should be more clearly directed at issues that influence policies. It is strongly important to stimulate and promote scientific work and that the government develops a focused policy towards a coordinated research agenda and a modern climate change knowledge base that is integrated and widely shared. This would not only strongly support planning and awareness building within country, but also enhance Bangladesh' role in international negotiations, as this country is virtually non-contributor of human induced climate change. Md Lutfor Rahman is Researcher, Landscape and Biodiversity Research Group, University of Northampton, UK.
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