Climate Change Vulnerability
Challenges for Bangladesh
Bangladesh is recognized to be one of the most susceptible countries in the world, highly vulnerable to climatic manifestations (short-term and long-term impacts of climate change) due to its unique geographic location, hydro-geological characters like dominance of floodplains, low elevation from the sea and lastly the socio-economical characters like high population density, high levels of poverty, and overwhelming dependence on nature. Unfortunately, the country's future is now trapped between the melting Himalayas in the north and the encroaching Bay of Bengal to the south.
Impact of climate change
Sea level rise: Bangladeshi scientists believe that because of sea level rise coastal Bangladesh has already experienced worst impacts of inundation and erosion, saline intrusion, deforestation, loss of bio-diversity and agriculture, and migration. About 830,000 million hectares of arable land has been affected by varying degrees of soil salinity. During the period 19731987, about 2.18 million tons of rice was damaged due to drought and 2.38 million tons due to flood. Drought affects annually about 2.32 million hectares and 1.2 million hectares of cropped land during the Kharif (November to June) and Rabi (July to October) seasons, respectively, while soil salinity, water logging and acidification affect 3.05 million, 0.7 million and 0.6 million hectares of crop land, respectively, in the country. The temperature and rainfall projections for Bangladesh over the next decades show significant temperature increases for both monsoon and winter period. General Circulation Model (GCM) has reported that the average increase in temperature would be 1.3°C and 2.6°C for the years 2030 and 2070, respectively. It was found that there would be a seasonal variation in changed temperature: 1.4°C in the winter and 0.7°C in the monsoon in 2030. For 2070, the variation would be 2.1°C and 1.7°C for winter and monsoon, respectively. Increased frequencies of natural disasters: Much of the future vulnerability due to climate change would not necessarily add any new climatic havoc to the already well known ones of floods, droughts and cyclones, but would enhance both the frequency as well as the intensity of such events. Particularly, the areas prone to floods, cyclones and salinity intrusion may increase in the coming decades. The climatic manifestation will in turn be compounded by other factors including land use patterns, water management and control of river flows in the upstream. Flash floods can also be a problem in the north-eastern and south-eastern regions of the country. It is predicted that by the year 2030, an additional 14.3% of the country would become extremely vulnerable to floods, while the existing flood prone areas will face higher levels of flooding. On the other hand, a severe tropical cyclone hits Bangladesh, on an average, every 3 years. The storm surges are higher in Bangladesh than in the neighbouring countries because the Bay of Bengal narrows towards the north, where Bangladesh is located. In recent years, general cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal has become more frequent, creating rougher seas. The very recent cyclones Sidr and Aila in addition to the cyclone in 1991 are the most severe amongst all the natural cyclones that the country has experienced so far. The risk environment
Identifying the risk environment is the priority factor of any policy making. The building blocks of climate change policies of Bangladesh stand on four pillars: natural infrastructures (e.g., physiology, proximity to the sea, landscape and terrain, watersheds, land type characteristics etc.), socioeconomic infrastructure (e.g., socio-economic profile of major livelihood groups, poverty dimension etc.), physical infrastructure (e.g., roads and highways, healthcare centres, urban centres, village growth centres, industries and factories, school buildings etc.) and institutional infrastructure (e.g., community organizations, Local government Institutes, arrangements of government wings etc.). According to IPCC, in their recently published Fourth Assessment, the following changes have been observed in climate trends, variability and extreme events: * In Bangladesh, average temperature has registered an increasing trend of about 1°C in May and 0.5°C in November during the 14 year period from 1985 to 1998. * The annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends. Decadal rain anomalies are above long term averages since 1960s. * Serious and recurring floods have taken place during 2002, 2003, and 2004. Intensity of cyclones originating from the Bay of Bengal has increased. * Frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclones formation in Bay of Bengal has increased. * Salt water from the Bay of Bengal is reported to have penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels. * The precipitation decline and droughts have resulted in the drying up of wetlands and severe degradation of ecosystems. International efforts
UNFCCC: In 1991, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) raised the alarm globally by presenting scientific findings on evidence of global warming, emission increase and climate change impacts. This resulted in a worldwide recognition that some serious actions are necessary to save our planet. In 1992, United Nation produced an inter-governmental environmental treaty named United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This series of agreements aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a certain level. In 1994, Bangladesh including 192 countries ratified the UNFCCC. Kyoto Protocol: The Convention led to the development of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 which provides the mechanisms, targets and timetable for greenhouse gas emission reductions. To help vulnerable countries and people adapt to climate change and increase resilience, additional support was also agreed. Most industrialized nations and some central European economies in transition (all defined as Annex I countries) agreed to legally binding reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of an average of 6 to 8% below 1990 levels between the years 2008-2012. Unfortunately, United States administration explicitly rejected the protocol in 2001. Only parties to the Convention that have also become parties to the Protocol are bounded by the Protocol's commitments. Since then, twelve years have passed. But progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is disappointing. Convention commitments to address current impacts and future risks from global warming through support for reducing vulnerability and adaptation measures is yet to materialize in a manner that will match current and future priorities. Funding through the creation of the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) and the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) under the Convention has been only fractions of the amount required as priority by the poorest and vulnerable countries. National efforts
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA): In 2005, the GoB developed the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) after extensive consultations with communities across the country, professional groups; and other members of civil society. In the NAPA 15 adaptation measures have been suggested for Bangladesh to address adverse effects of climate change including variability and extreme events based on existing coping mechanisms and practices (MoEF, 2005). Strategy and action plan: Development of NAPA was a significant kick-off start for dealing with climate change impacts. This process has been taken forward, with the adoption of the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) in 2008, which is the main basis of Bangladesh's efforts to combat climate change over the next ten years. The Climate Change Action Plan is built on six pillars (MoEF, 2008) which are: * Food security, social protection and health: To ensure that the poorest and most vulnerable in society, including women and children, are protected from climate change effects and that all programmes focus on the needs of this group for food security, safe housing, employment and access to basic services, including health. * Comprehensive disaster management: To further strengthen the country's already proven disaster management systems to deal with increasingly frequent and severe natural calamities. * Infrastructure: To ensure that existing assets (e.g., coastal and river embankments) are well-maintained and fit-for-purpose and that urgently needed infrastructure (e.g. cyclone shelters and urban drainage) is put in place to deal with the likely impacts of climate change. * Research and knowledge management: To predict the likely scale and timing of climate change impacts on different sectors of the economy and socioeconomic groups; to underpin future investment strategies; and to ensure that Bangladesh is networked into the latest global thinking on climate change. * Mitigation and low carbon development: To evolve low carbon development options and implement these as the country's economy grows over the coming decades. * Capacity building and institutional strengthening: To enhance the capacity of government ministries and agencies, civil society and the private sector to meet the challenge of climate change. Areas of concern
The most important characteristic of climate change as a policy problem is uncertainty. From climatology to economics, uncertainties are pervasive, large and difficult to resolve. However, the economic theory of environmental policy under uncertainty provides a clear guide to the design of an appropriate policy. An efficient and practical approach would be a hybrid that incorporates the best features of tradable permits and emissions taxes. Unfortunately, international negotiations have taken a different approach, focusing on rigid targets and timetables for emissions reduction. Climate change, however, is one of the most important environmental and developmental issues for the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Like many other LDCs, Bangladesh is a low-lying coastal country that shares similar sustainable development challenges, including large population, susceptibility to natural disasters, vulnerability to external shocks, and excessive dependence on international trade and foreign aid. Its growth and development is often further stymied by high transportation and communication costs, disproportionately expensive public administration and infrastructure, and little opportunity to create economies of scale. Considering these facts food security, social protection and health was given the highest priority in the BCCSAP, followed by comprehensive disaster management, infrastructure, research and knowledge management, mitigation and low carbon development, and capacity building and institutional strengthening. Recommendations
Adopt meaningful, achievable climate change targets: Although the focus of the action plan of Bangladesh is on low carbon development, but, the emission is actually negligible. Bangladesh approximately produces one fifth of 1% global CO2. So the government must be careful at setting out the target considering our developing economy. Pursue strong, binding emissions targets in international negotiations: In international climate change negotiations, Bangladesh Government should support strong, binding emissions reduction targets for developed countries that will keep global warming below 2.0°C, including emission reduction targets of 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020, and at least 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Ensure commitment of developing countries' fair share to climate change adaptation for Bangladesh: Bangladesh Government should strongly negotiate for increasing aid directed towards helping developing countries like Bangladesh to improve energy efficiency, to adopt energy-efficient production processes, to adopt renewable energy technologies and to adapt to climate change through measures such as disaster preparedness planning, and improving food and water security. Create education, training and public awareness: Bangladesh Government should develop and implement educational and public awareness programmes on climate change and its effects. Public should have access to information on climate change and its effects and should participate in addressing the issue and develop adequate responses. Government should train scientific, technical and managerial personnel on climate change and its effects; and programmes should include strengthening of national institutions and the exchange of personnel to train experts in this field. Seek more support for climate change mitigation and adaptation research: Bangladesh Government should look for increased funding support for research into innovative technologies including renewable energy, understanding climate change dynamics, carbon capture and sequestration, energy efficiency, crop varieties, and other adaptation and mitigation innovations. Encourage environmental solutions in other countries: Bangladesh should support and play advocacy role for global, regional, national and local efforts to address climate change through leading-edge biosequestration programmes including agricultural diversification, reforestation and reduction of deforestation. Collaborate with neighbours who are victim of climate change: Bangladesh Government should take more initiatives for better collaboration with neighbours for jointly dealing with the climate change impacts and implement adaptation strategies.Dr. Abdullah Al-Muyeed is Asstt. Professor, Environmental division of the department of civil engineering, Ahsanullah University of Science and Technology.
Sea level rise: Bangladeshi scientists believe that because of sea level rise coastal Bangladesh has already experienced worst impacts of inundation and erosion, saline intrusion, deforestation, loss of bio-diversity and agriculture, and migration. About 830,000 million hectares of arable land has been affected by varying degrees of soil salinity. During the period 19731987, about 2.18 million tons of rice was damaged due to drought and 2.38 million tons due to flood. Drought affects annually about 2.32 million hectares and 1.2 million hectares of cropped land during the Kharif (November to June) and Rabi (July to October) seasons, respectively, while soil salinity, water logging and acidification affect 3.05 million, 0.7 million and 0.6 million hectares of crop land, respectively, in the country. The temperature and rainfall projections for Bangladesh over the next decades show significant temperature increases for both monsoon and winter period. General Circulation Model (GCM) has reported that the average increase in temperature would be 1.3°C and 2.6°C for the years 2030 and 2070, respectively. It was found that there would be a seasonal variation in changed temperature: 1.4°C in the winter and 0.7°C in the monsoon in 2030. For 2070, the variation would be 2.1°C and 1.7°C for winter and monsoon, respectively. Increased frequencies of natural disasters: Much of the future vulnerability due to climate change would not necessarily add any new climatic havoc to the already well known ones of floods, droughts and cyclones, but would enhance both the frequency as well as the intensity of such events. Particularly, the areas prone to floods, cyclones and salinity intrusion may increase in the coming decades. The climatic manifestation will in turn be compounded by other factors including land use patterns, water management and control of river flows in the upstream. Flash floods can also be a problem in the north-eastern and south-eastern regions of the country. It is predicted that by the year 2030, an additional 14.3% of the country would become extremely vulnerable to floods, while the existing flood prone areas will face higher levels of flooding. On the other hand, a severe tropical cyclone hits Bangladesh, on an average, every 3 years. The storm surges are higher in Bangladesh than in the neighbouring countries because the Bay of Bengal narrows towards the north, where Bangladesh is located. In recent years, general cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal has become more frequent, creating rougher seas. The very recent cyclones Sidr and Aila in addition to the cyclone in 1991 are the most severe amongst all the natural cyclones that the country has experienced so far. The risk environment
Identifying the risk environment is the priority factor of any policy making. The building blocks of climate change policies of Bangladesh stand on four pillars: natural infrastructures (e.g., physiology, proximity to the sea, landscape and terrain, watersheds, land type characteristics etc.), socioeconomic infrastructure (e.g., socio-economic profile of major livelihood groups, poverty dimension etc.), physical infrastructure (e.g., roads and highways, healthcare centres, urban centres, village growth centres, industries and factories, school buildings etc.) and institutional infrastructure (e.g., community organizations, Local government Institutes, arrangements of government wings etc.). According to IPCC, in their recently published Fourth Assessment, the following changes have been observed in climate trends, variability and extreme events: * In Bangladesh, average temperature has registered an increasing trend of about 1°C in May and 0.5°C in November during the 14 year period from 1985 to 1998. * The annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends. Decadal rain anomalies are above long term averages since 1960s. * Serious and recurring floods have taken place during 2002, 2003, and 2004. Intensity of cyclones originating from the Bay of Bengal has increased. * Frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclones formation in Bay of Bengal has increased. * Salt water from the Bay of Bengal is reported to have penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels. * The precipitation decline and droughts have resulted in the drying up of wetlands and severe degradation of ecosystems. International efforts
UNFCCC: In 1991, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) raised the alarm globally by presenting scientific findings on evidence of global warming, emission increase and climate change impacts. This resulted in a worldwide recognition that some serious actions are necessary to save our planet. In 1992, United Nation produced an inter-governmental environmental treaty named United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This series of agreements aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a certain level. In 1994, Bangladesh including 192 countries ratified the UNFCCC. Kyoto Protocol: The Convention led to the development of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 which provides the mechanisms, targets and timetable for greenhouse gas emission reductions. To help vulnerable countries and people adapt to climate change and increase resilience, additional support was also agreed. Most industrialized nations and some central European economies in transition (all defined as Annex I countries) agreed to legally binding reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of an average of 6 to 8% below 1990 levels between the years 2008-2012. Unfortunately, United States administration explicitly rejected the protocol in 2001. Only parties to the Convention that have also become parties to the Protocol are bounded by the Protocol's commitments. Since then, twelve years have passed. But progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is disappointing. Convention commitments to address current impacts and future risks from global warming through support for reducing vulnerability and adaptation measures is yet to materialize in a manner that will match current and future priorities. Funding through the creation of the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) and the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) under the Convention has been only fractions of the amount required as priority by the poorest and vulnerable countries. National efforts
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA): In 2005, the GoB developed the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) after extensive consultations with communities across the country, professional groups; and other members of civil society. In the NAPA 15 adaptation measures have been suggested for Bangladesh to address adverse effects of climate change including variability and extreme events based on existing coping mechanisms and practices (MoEF, 2005). Strategy and action plan: Development of NAPA was a significant kick-off start for dealing with climate change impacts. This process has been taken forward, with the adoption of the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) in 2008, which is the main basis of Bangladesh's efforts to combat climate change over the next ten years. The Climate Change Action Plan is built on six pillars (MoEF, 2008) which are: * Food security, social protection and health: To ensure that the poorest and most vulnerable in society, including women and children, are protected from climate change effects and that all programmes focus on the needs of this group for food security, safe housing, employment and access to basic services, including health. * Comprehensive disaster management: To further strengthen the country's already proven disaster management systems to deal with increasingly frequent and severe natural calamities. * Infrastructure: To ensure that existing assets (e.g., coastal and river embankments) are well-maintained and fit-for-purpose and that urgently needed infrastructure (e.g. cyclone shelters and urban drainage) is put in place to deal with the likely impacts of climate change. * Research and knowledge management: To predict the likely scale and timing of climate change impacts on different sectors of the economy and socioeconomic groups; to underpin future investment strategies; and to ensure that Bangladesh is networked into the latest global thinking on climate change. * Mitigation and low carbon development: To evolve low carbon development options and implement these as the country's economy grows over the coming decades. * Capacity building and institutional strengthening: To enhance the capacity of government ministries and agencies, civil society and the private sector to meet the challenge of climate change. Areas of concern
The most important characteristic of climate change as a policy problem is uncertainty. From climatology to economics, uncertainties are pervasive, large and difficult to resolve. However, the economic theory of environmental policy under uncertainty provides a clear guide to the design of an appropriate policy. An efficient and practical approach would be a hybrid that incorporates the best features of tradable permits and emissions taxes. Unfortunately, international negotiations have taken a different approach, focusing on rigid targets and timetables for emissions reduction. Climate change, however, is one of the most important environmental and developmental issues for the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Like many other LDCs, Bangladesh is a low-lying coastal country that shares similar sustainable development challenges, including large population, susceptibility to natural disasters, vulnerability to external shocks, and excessive dependence on international trade and foreign aid. Its growth and development is often further stymied by high transportation and communication costs, disproportionately expensive public administration and infrastructure, and little opportunity to create economies of scale. Considering these facts food security, social protection and health was given the highest priority in the BCCSAP, followed by comprehensive disaster management, infrastructure, research and knowledge management, mitigation and low carbon development, and capacity building and institutional strengthening. Recommendations
Adopt meaningful, achievable climate change targets: Although the focus of the action plan of Bangladesh is on low carbon development, but, the emission is actually negligible. Bangladesh approximately produces one fifth of 1% global CO2. So the government must be careful at setting out the target considering our developing economy. Pursue strong, binding emissions targets in international negotiations: In international climate change negotiations, Bangladesh Government should support strong, binding emissions reduction targets for developed countries that will keep global warming below 2.0°C, including emission reduction targets of 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020, and at least 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Ensure commitment of developing countries' fair share to climate change adaptation for Bangladesh: Bangladesh Government should strongly negotiate for increasing aid directed towards helping developing countries like Bangladesh to improve energy efficiency, to adopt energy-efficient production processes, to adopt renewable energy technologies and to adapt to climate change through measures such as disaster preparedness planning, and improving food and water security. Create education, training and public awareness: Bangladesh Government should develop and implement educational and public awareness programmes on climate change and its effects. Public should have access to information on climate change and its effects and should participate in addressing the issue and develop adequate responses. Government should train scientific, technical and managerial personnel on climate change and its effects; and programmes should include strengthening of national institutions and the exchange of personnel to train experts in this field. Seek more support for climate change mitigation and adaptation research: Bangladesh Government should look for increased funding support for research into innovative technologies including renewable energy, understanding climate change dynamics, carbon capture and sequestration, energy efficiency, crop varieties, and other adaptation and mitigation innovations. Encourage environmental solutions in other countries: Bangladesh should support and play advocacy role for global, regional, national and local efforts to address climate change through leading-edge biosequestration programmes including agricultural diversification, reforestation and reduction of deforestation. Collaborate with neighbours who are victim of climate change: Bangladesh Government should take more initiatives for better collaboration with neighbours for jointly dealing with the climate change impacts and implement adaptation strategies.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments