Covid-19: Disaster risk assessment in Bangladesh

Bangladesh has been combating Covid-19 for over 17 months. At present, Bangladesh is the second-most affected country in South Asia after India. Bangladesh has constantly shown one of the lowest test rates in the world and it has been inadequate to accurately understand the extent of transmission, particularly outside Dhaka division.

Risk assessment is a multi-disciplinary process -- associated with decision and policy-making -- and requires close collaboration of various stakeholders. Besides the approximation of potential losses and their impact, it allows for the determination of the level of risk that is acceptable without destroying lives, national economy or personal finances.

As the pandemic drags on and we are hit by waves of Covid-19 cases, Bangladesh is approaching a crushing situation. The impact of community transmission is increasing, healthcare capacity is exhausted, hospitals are affected and a significant number of healthcare workers have been infected.

As Bangladesh is a developing country, the Covid-19 pandemic can increase morbidity and mortality. To minimise the devastating effects of the pandemic on the country, application of risk assessment and emergency management should be done to evaluate the magnitude and likelihood of potential losses and to also provide a full understanding of the causes and impact of those losses.

This new threat reveals challenges in managing health risks, deaths, sufficient necessary drugs, healthcare equipment like ventilator support systems, oxygen supply, ICU beds, necessary health workers, enough test facilities, psychosocial issues, food system, economic stability, increased political stresses, disasters, and other health impacts. The Covid-19 situation in Bangladesh can be compared to an iceberg because what we are seeing is only the tip.

Suggested steps:

·        Risk assessment indicators along with sub-indicators should be developed for the convenience of decision- and policy-makers on healthcare issues -- both on prevention and curing aspects of Covid-19.

·        Assessment and reporting systems for cases should be developed and standardised at an international level, particularly to measure all dimensions of health before, during, and after the Covid-19 pandemic in Bangladesh.

·        Consideration for people with knowledge and experience in risk assessment and emergency management, and disaster management policies and programmes for the implementation of national plans and policies should be ensured.

Above all, we know that prevention is always better than cure. Awareness among all, not just for self but also for the safety of near and dear ones is most crucial during this global fight against the deadly virus.

The writer is a senior physician at Uttara Adhunik Medical College and Hospital.