Is US in a recession? GDP is not the only measure

By some early estimates, the US economy, as measured by gross domestic product, may have shrunk in the three months from April through June. Add that to the decline from January through March, and that would be a contraction for two quarters in a row.

By an often-cited rule of thumb, that means the world's largest economy is in recession.

But deciding when a recession has begun or predicting when one might occur is not straightforward. The  "two quarters" definition is not how economists think about business cycles, because GDP is a broad measure that can be influenced by factors like government spending or international trade. Instead they focus on factors like jobs, industrial production, and incomes.

At issue now is personal consumption data for May, released last week, which showed spending and disposable income dropped on an inflation-adjusted basis. That sparked a host of gloomy forecasts for June, and increasing speculation that a downturn is coming soon, if it is not here already.

The weeks ahead are likely to include pitched debate about the real health of the economy. Whether the US is headed for a recession or already in one is a growing concern for corporate chief executives and their employees, the Federal Reserve, and the administration of President Joe Biden.

DOESN'T FALLING GDP = RECESSION?

Not always. In 2001 gross domestic product, after revisions, fell in the first three months of the year, but then rebounded in the next three months to a level higher than it ended the year before. GDP declined again in the fall.

Even though there were not two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, the situation was dubbed a recession at the time, because employment and industrial production were falling.

The pandemic recession only lasted two months, from March to April 2020, even though the steep drop in economic activity over those weeks meant GDP shrank overall in both the first and second quarters of the year. In 2016 there was a noticeable drop in industrial activity that some dubbed a  "mini-recession," though GDP never declined.

WHO DECIDES AND HOW?

In the United States, the official call is made by a panel of economists convened by the National Bureau of Economic Research, and sometimes comes a year or more after the fact.

The private non-profit research group defines recession as a  "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months."  The panel concentrates on things like jobs and industrial output that are measured monthly, not quarterly like GDP. It examines the depth of any changes, how long declines seem to be lasting, and how broadly any trouble is spread.

There are tradeoffs.

In the pandemic, for example, the depth of the job loss, in excess of 20 million positions, offset the fact that growth resumed quickly, leading the group to officially call the situation a recession in early June, before the end of the second quarter.

While each of three criteria -- depth, diffusion, and even duration --  "needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another," the group says.

SO ARE WE IN A RECESSION NOW?

Almost certainly not. While the  "two quarter rule" has caveats and exceptions, there has never been a recession declared without a loss of employment. Jobs are being added in the US by hundreds of thousands monthly.

The pace will likely slow, but there would need to be a sharp reversal for the current path of job growth to turn into one that looks like recession.

Industrial production, another factor that figured prominently in declaring the 2001 recession, has also been rising steadily, at least through May.