Dollar edges up in int’l market

The US dollar rose on Tuesday as investors balanced cautious hopes ​for a Middle East peace deal against concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise rates to curb energy-driven inflation.

US ‌President Donald Trump said on Monday there was now a “very good chance” of reaching a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear program.

The dollar jumped in March after Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, weighing on oil-dependent economies such as Japan and the euro area ​while increasing safe-haven demand for the greenback.

Oil prices fell 2 percent on Tuesday after Trump’s remarks.

“There are reasons why the ​dollar has not strengthened back to the levels seen in March,” Paul Mackel, global head of forex research at HSBC, said.

“Notably, global risk sentiment has recovered strongly; tension remains in USD OIS (overnight index swaps) markets which ​have stopped short of pricing an aggressive Fed hiking cycle; and monthly global growth momentum is still positive,” he added.

At the ​same time, investors are now pricing in almost a 48.5 percent chance that the Fed could raise rates in December, and a 98.8 percent chance it maintains current rates at its next meeting in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

“Even if the Fed moves to signal that it ​will adopt a neutral bias in June, it may not be enough to stabilize inflation expectations and long-term US Treasury yields,” ​said Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Group’s global foreign exchange and rates strategist.

“An opportunity to change the Fed’s rhetoric decidedly toward ‘hawkish’ will come with the ‌small ⁠flurry of Fed speeches, between now and June 6,” he added.

The US dollar index , which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.2 percent at 99.18, after snapping a five-day winning streak on Monday as fears eased of an escalation in the war.