GDP growth may hit 5% in 2026 Govt report forecasts

Bangladesh’s economic outlook for 2026 points to a potential growth of around 5 percent, with expectations of easing inflation, as per a recent government report. However, structural challenges remain, which will require strong governance and policy consistency.

The report by the General Economics Division (GED) of the Bangladesh Planning Commission -- titled Economic Update & Outlook January 2026 -- notes that macroeconomic stability is expected to improve. 

Despite that, sustaining growth will require investment in skills and technology to diversify the economy beyond garments. This step is particularly significant as the country approaches graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category and navigates an ongoing democratic transition.

Recent data show signs of recovery. Provisional quarterly national accounts estimates released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics indicate that economic activity strengthened in the first quarter of FY2025-26.

On a point-to-point basis, real growth rose to 4.50 percent, up from 2.58 percent in the same quarter a year earlier. Provisional estimates also suggest overall GDP growth at constant prices reached 3.72 percent in FY2024-25, with final figures to be benchmarked against annual GDP using internationally accepted methods.

The GED report underscores the importance of a stable and reformed political environment, alongside effective integration of technology, to shift the economy from low-cost labour dependence to higher-value activities.

The report cautions that risks persist from institutional weaknesses and elite uncertainty. With progress on the Sustainable Development Goals remaining slow, it recommends evidence-based policymaking and targeted village-level interventions to support inclusive and sustainable development.