Horse-trading in Punjab

Even after bagging millions of votes and winning dozens of seats at national and provincial levels, mainstream political parties in Pakistan, such as Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) are at the mercy of independent candidates to form government in Punjab province.

Though the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) has emerged as the single largest party in the National Assembly after the July 25 elections and its leaders have been claiming that they will not need support of any other party, fight for one provincial assembly is getting intense.

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In Sindh, the Pakistan People's Party won majority and is expected to form the provincial government, while in Balochistan, the provincial government will likely be led by the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP).

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, PTI has the clear majority and expected to form the government there.

But the fate of Punjab, Pakistan most populous and important province, is on knife-edge. The key to Pakistan stability, however, will lie in who leads the provincial government in Punjab.

Although the PML-N and the PTI have won 129 and 123 seats, respectively, out of total 295 seats of the Punjab Assembly, both parties require independent candidates or support of small parties to form a government in Punjab. Independent candidates have won 28 seats.

And parties like Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) has gained much significance at both federal and provincial levels despite the fact it has only four seats in the National Assembly and eight seats in the Punjab Assembly.

The 28 independents are being offered important portfolios and hefty perks by different political parties. Both the PML-N and the PTI are claiming that they have secured the support of most independents.

However, PTI Central Punjab President Abdul Aleem Khan claims that all 28 independent candidates are most likely to join the PTI.  So far, five independent candidates have met the PM-in-waiting Imran Khan at his Banigala residence, and four of them announced their decision to join the party before the media.

On the other hand, PML-N, the party which has governed Punjab since 1985, faces a dilemma in getting the support of either independent MPAs-elect or PPP and PML-Q to form a government in Punjab.

PML-N President Shahbaz Sharif met with Pakistan Peoples Party leader and former governor Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood and sought his party's support in formation of a government in Punjab.

PPP Punjab Secretary General Chaudhry Manzoor told Dawn that his party had formed a six-member team headed by former premier Yousuf Raza Gilani to contact other parties for formation of governments in the Centre and Punjab. PPP has won 6 seats in the assembly polls.

PML-Q has demanded the post of Punjab chief minister or deputy prime minister at the centre as a condition for forming a coalition provincial government with the PTI, a source within the PML-Q told Dawn News TV yesterday.

However, PTI Spokesman Naeemul Haq, while addressing a press conference yesterday, dismissed speculation that a chief minister belonging to a political party other than the PTI would be appointed.

At least 149 directly elected MPAs are required to form a government in Punjab. With 66 reserved seats for women and eight for minorities, the number rises to at least 185.

Meanwhile, in a desperate bid to retain power in the state, Shahbaz Sharif, after setting aside differences with Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and his brother, had tasked senior party leader Ayaz Sadiq with contacting the PML-Q leaders.

When Sadiq spoke to Elahi over the phone on Saturday and requested him to support the PML-N in Punjab, the latter responded that he would discuss the proposition other party leaders and then get back to the PML-N.

According to sources within the PML-Q, when Elahi was separately contacted by PML-N's Mushahid Hussain for the purpose of forming a coalition government, the former said that since the PML-Q had fought the election alongside PTI, it would like to join them in forming the government.

"However, there is no such thing as a final verdict in politics, and we will not show rigidity at any point," the PML-Q leader was quoted as saying.

The PML-Q is also reportedly in contact with seven independent candidates in Punjab.