Fahim Chowdhury

In the first days of March, Petrobangla went looking for an emergency cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and no seller would bid.

Fitch Ratings revised Bangladesh’s sovereign outlook to “Negative” from “Stable” on May 13 while affirming the long-term rating at B+. The announcement framed this as Middle East exposure.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, in April, told parliament that the next two years would be difficult and that many measures might not be popular. The FY27 arithmetic is familiar: Tk 9.30 lakh crore in spending against a Tk 2.35 lakh crore deficit, an NBR shortfall nearing Tk 98,000 crore, a 6.8 percent tax-to-GDP ratio and rising borrowing on a debt path that tightens FY28 and FY29.

When the IMF’s Asia-Pacific director signalled to Bangladesh’s delegation in Washington last week that the expected $1.3 billion tranche would not be released in June, the key message was not financial but what Bangladesh can credibly offer in return, and what it cannot.