Palestinians sidelined as war rages in Lebanon

A perceived victory for Iranian and Syrian-backed Hizbollah could boost the Hamas Islamist group that heads the Palestinian government, struggling under Western sanctions as well as the Israeli offensive in Gaza.

If Israel deals a heavy enough blow to the Lebanese Shi'ite group, however, it may further weaken Hamas and put the Jewish state in a better position to dictate a de facto border in the occupied West Bank.

"We are only spectators now," said one senior Palestinian official. "Whether we like it or not, our fate will be decided by the outcome of Israel's war in Lebanon and the conflict between the regional and international powers."

Hizbollah's popularity among Palestinians has soared since it captured two soldiers in a cross-border raid and killed eight others a week ago, then rained rockets on northern Israel after Israel launched an air offensive.

That has had a knock-on effect in terms of support for Hamas, whose armed wing helped seize an Israeli soldier on June 25, prompting an Israeli assault on Gaza that has killed at least 85 Palestinians, about half of them militants.

Israeli air raids on Lebanon have killed 230 people, while Hizbollah rockets have killed 12 Israelis.

"As a result of the developments in Lebanon, Hamas now has more leverage than it did before. Now it's Hamas and Hizbollah versus Israel," Jordan-based analyst Mouin Rabbani told Reuters.

Both dedicated to destroying Israel, the groups want the release of prisoners for their captured soldiers.

Rejecting the demands, Israel has launched a massive show of military force to cripple Hizbollah and Hamas and to send a message to their backers.

OLMERT PLAN

The fact that Israel was attacked from Gaza and south Lebanon, two occupied territories from which it had withdrawn troops, intensified the domestic pressure on Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's new government for tough action.

"You have a new Israeli government that's making a judgment that they have to re-establish a deterrent," said former US Middle East peace co-ordinator Dennis Ross.

If Israel's offensive succeeds in battering Hizbollah badly and stopping it from returning to dominate Lebanon's southern border, it might also show the less well-armed Hamas that it could make little headway in the longer term.

Although Israel says it is not its aim to topple the elected Hamas government, that outcome would certainly not trouble Olmert and his colleagues.

Quieting Israel's northern and southern borders might also give Olmert space for his plan to reshape Israel's presence in the occupied West Bank by giving up isolated Jewish settlements to bolster the biggest if talks remain frozen.

"Unless he changes the Palestinian political reality, he can't move ahead," said Israeli analyst Menachem Klein.

Palestinians fear Olmert's plan would deny them the viable state sought by President Mahmoud Abbas and other moderates just on land captured by Israel in the 1967 war -- Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

If Israel emerges strengthened from the battle in Lebanon, then both Olmert and Washington would likely want to bolster Abbas at the expense of Hamas.

But any such attempt could be doomed while Hamas's popular support remains strong, and could lead to the renewal of an internal Palestinian power struggle that had been growing increasingly bloody before the violence with Israel erupted.

"I don't see an Abbas-led government," said London-based Palestinian analyst Ahmed al-Khalidi. "I don't think Abbas wants or can be seen to become the supreme authority on the back of Israeli military force."