Sharon shakes up rules of Israeli political game

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon (R) and Israeli President Moshe Katsav meet in Jerusalem yesterday. Katsav announced that Sharon asked him to dissolve the Knesset (Israeli parliament), paving the way for early polls, expected in March 2007.. PHOTO: AFP

Sharon was due to announce his decision to go it alone at a general election early next year at a news conference Monday after deciding he had enough of trying to rub along with party hardliners who will not forgive him for ordering Israel's first pullout from occupied Palestinian territory.

The 77-year-old prime minister has become increasingly divorced from the party he was instrumental in founding in 1973 with the merger of four right-wing parties.

Since the first Likud leader Menachem Begin's election victory in 1977, Israeli politics has been essentially a two-party system between Likud and the centre-left Labour party.

Signs of disillusion with the status quo became evident at the last election in 2003 when Labour slumped to its worst ever result, winning just 19 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. The secular Shinui party, campaigning heavily on an anti-corruption ticket, saw its share of seats leap to 15.

The result was a major victory for Likud, which went on to lead the most right-wing coalition government in the country's history.

Now it is Likud facing electoral meltdown, unable to heal the rifts by the pullout of troops and settlers from the Gaza Strip, completed in September.

Results from a poll last week said a Sharon-led party would win 28 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, compared to 18 for Likud.

According to Gideon Doron, professor of politics at Tel Aviv University, the only question was why Sharon had waited so long.

His arch rival, former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was bound to have launched more efforts to unseat Sharon if he stayed with Likud whose new intake of MPs is likely to be markedly more right-wing.

"I don't think it's a gamble by Sharon. What is his alternative? If he stays in Likud, he will be in a party that opposes him. If he goes by himself, he gets more seats, then he can decide whether to work with Likud" or any other party for that matter," said Doron.

Hanan Cristal, Israeli public radio's chief analyst, said Sharon was seeking to seize the initiative by breaking from his party.

"There will now be elections at a date of his choosing and he will now launch the latest blitz of his political career to fix the borders of Israel in line with his political vision, shaking up all the rules of the political game," Cristal told AFP.

Sharon will expect to attract the bulk of new recruits from Likud, such as Finance Minister Ehud Olmert and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni.

However he will also seek to reel in figures on the right of Labour, such as the cabinet minister Haim Ramon who has previously spoken of a need to revolutionise the party system.

The election earlier this month of trade union leader Amir Peretz at the helm of Labour has dragged the party decisively to the left -- opening up further opportunities for a new centrist party.

Doron said the election of Peretz, who defeated the veteran deputy prime minister Shimon Peres, helped make up Sharon's mind.

"I think that was the last sign he needed to quit and it gives him room to move to the left."

Smaller right-wing parties, already scenting electoral disaster for Likud, have begun making noises about a merger with those who decline to join Sharon's adventure.