Tough lessons for China

From countering a Western "information war" during a Taiwan conflict to using "shock and awe" to swiftly subdue the island's forces, Chinese strategists are soaking up lessons from Russia's Ukrainian quagmire, diplomats, scholars and analysts say.

Chinese military experts are discussing the conflict in private chat groups, offering their takes on Western involvement in Ukraine and Russia's perceived failings, say two scholars and four Asian and Western diplomats who are in touch with Chinese strategists.

Although their conclusions have yet to surface in official military journals or state media, Russia's failure to quickly crush the Ukrainian military is a key topic - as are fears about how well China's untested forces would perform.

"Many Chinese experts are monitoring this war as if they are imagining how this would unfold if it happened between China and the West," said Beijing-based security scholar Zhao Tong of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Russia's approach in the early stages of the war did not subdue Ukrainian forces, which emboldened the international community to intervene with intelligence sharing, military equipment and the economic isolation of Russia.

"China probably should think about conducting a much stronger and much more comprehensive operation at the very beginning to shock and awe the Taiwanese forces to secure a major advantage," Zhao said, referring to observations from Chinese strategists.

They believe securing that advantage would "deter enemy forces from being willing to intervene", he said.

Chinese strategists also worry about how Russia is contending with indirect Western military assistance, a factor China would also face in a Taiwan scenario, say two scholars and four diplomats.

Chinese experts are privately arguing about the need for Beijing to better compete in the so-called information war, which has complicated Russia's position on the battlefield, Zhao said.

Besides isolating Russia economically, Western diplomatic efforts - and reporting on atrocities in the war zone - have made it easier to provide aid for Ukraine and harder for Russia to find outside support.

Zhao said that to Chinese strategists, one of the most important parts of the current conflict was how Western nations "are able to manipulate, from their perspective, international opinion and decisively change the international response to the war."

Some Chinese strategists believe that the control of information has created a much worse impression of Russian performance than is warranted.

China's military leaders also have for decades looked to Moscow for not just weapons but also structural and command doctrine.