Death graph gets steeper

The daily Covid-19 deaths crossed the 200-mark for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic in the country, hitting an alarming milestone in the second wave.

A total of 11,162 people tested positive in 24 hours until 8:00am yesterday and a new prediction warns that the number may be as high as 15,000 sometime after the end of this month.

Two hundred and one people died in the 24 hours, the Directorate General of Health Service (DGHS) said in a press release. The number was 163 the day before.

Of the newly deceased, 119 were men and 82 women.

This pushed the country's Covid-19 death rate up to 1.6 percent, shows DGHS data.

The lowest number of daily deaths -- 17 -- was reported on May 26. From that date, it took 30 days to reach the 100-mark, with 108 people reported dead on June 25.

It took only 12 days for the deaths to double from the 100-mark.

Even as the countrywide coronavirus lockdown rolls into its second week today, the number of deaths continue to rise and experts say this is linked to the dire situation the country was in before the restrictions were imposed.

"A Covid patient usually dies approximately three weeks after he or she starts showing symptoms. So, the rise in the death toll we are seeing right now is actually the result of the situation three weeks back," Dr Mushtuq Husain, adviser at Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control & Research (IEDCR), said pointing to the rampant breach of the Covid safety rules then.

The number of deaths has been rising by approximately 40-50 percent every week since mid-June, shows the DGHS data.

In the past seven days, the number of deaths has gone up by 41 percent. A similar rise was seen in the seven days immediately preceding last week.

Dr Husain warned that deaths would continue to rise until Eid-ul-Azha (likely to be celebrated on July 19) and beyond.

"If the situation does not improve and the restrictions are relaxed before Eid, we will see the daily deaths crossing the 300-mark after the festival," he said.

The total number of Covid-19 deaths in the country now stands at 15,593.

According to yesterday's figures, the current positivity rate also rose to 31.32 percent, with 35,639 samples being tested across the country in the 24 hours and 11,162 of them coming out positive.

The Covid-19 International Modelling Consortium's Bangladesh team has, meanwhile, forecast that the peak of this wave would be sometime after the end of this month and that the country would see 15,000 cases daily during the peak.

a critical patient on oxygen support being wheeled into a diagnostic centre across the street from Sher-e-Bangla Medical College Hospital in Barishal. Photo: Habibur Rahman/Titu Das

The CoMo Consortium was created by researchers at University of Oxford, Cornell University and partners with infectious disease modellers from over 40 countries across the world to provide forecasts of the disease.

The Bangladesh team includes Mofakhar Hussain of University of Toronto, Abu Jamil Faisel, member of the public health and epidemiology committee of DGHS, Prof Syed Abdul Hamid and Prof Nasrin Sultana of Dhaka University, Abdul Kuddus of James Cook University, Australia, and Shafiun Shimul, an associate professor of health economics at Dhaka University. Shimul leads the projection team.

"Currently, we are seeing over 11,000 people testing positive every day. If we can increase the number of daily tests to 50,000, then we will see 15,000 new daily infections during the peak," said Dr Shimul. "But if the government's testing capacity stands as it is now, we will not be able to detect so many cases and it may report up to twelve or thirteen thousand cases."

The model arrived at this figure by assuming that there will not be any movement restrictions after July 15.

"If government interventions are ensured, the peak may shift to the right. The lockdown will work to flatten the peak," he said.