EU lagging in achieving climate change goal

They want upcoming studies of the environment to add new urgency to international action to axe use of fossil fuels.

The EU says to avoid dangerous interference with the climate, global average temperatures should not exceed 2 degrees Celsius (3.6F) above pre-industrial levels. To that end it wants developed countries to cut emissions up to 30 percent by 2020.

"Everyone talks about 2 degrees as if we were on target," said Kevin Anderson, climate scientist at Britain's Tyndall Centre. "EU and UK rhetoric is relatively strong but the policy is completely inadequate, and they're the best there is."

Climate prediction is an inexact science and many politicians, led by US President George W Bush, remain unconvinced by dire warnings of global warming. And scientists themselves dispute exactly how much action is required and when.

But many academics agree action to curb climate change is too slow, pointing to rising greenhouse gas emissions even as the European Union delivers tough rhetoric on cuts.

The EU's own emissions rose slightly in 2004. Emissions also rose in the United States, the world's biggest polluter, which has not imposed mandatory caps.

"If the priority of climate change stays where it is I am very pessimistic," said Malte Meinshausen from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who has previously advised the European Commission.

"If mitigation isn't given a higher priority than we can't achieve 2 degrees."

Average temperatures have already risen by 0.6 degrees since the 1800s, and are expected to rise another 1.4 to 5.8 degrees by the year 2100, the United Nations climate change body says.

Scientists advise policymakers by saying where emissions are now, where they are headed, and where they should be to control long-term levels of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere.

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Anderson reckons Britain's already ambitious goal of a 60 percent cut in domestic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 is based on old science which could lead to a 3 degrees rise.

If shipping and rapidly-rising international aviation are included, he calculates Brita in's CO2 emissions in 2006 will exceed those in 1990, a common baseline year for targets.

Britain is still committed to the 2 degrees target, a Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs spokesman said, but added: "The UK cannot solve climate change alone and the science of climate change is constantly developing."

Scientists and policymakers see two key studies weighing on the politics -- Britain's Stern Review on climate change costs, due out in the autumn, and the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) review of science.

The IPCC review, grouping over 2,000 scientists who advise the United Nations, is published in February and is expected to show stronger evidence for climate change and man's part in it.

"I think the conditions are just right for this report to make a perceptible impact," said IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri. "I think there's enough observed evidence now that certainly will influence the policymakers."

"I've just come back from one of the small mountain states of India, and they regard the melting of the glaciers as the most important problem they're facing. Their entire water supply gets completely distorted."