Referendum unlikely to settle Fatah-Hamas differences

Overriding protests from the governing Hamas movement, Abbas has won approval from the Palestine Liberation Organisation to hold a referendum on an 18-point blueprint which implicitly recognises Israel.

With polls suggesting that more than three-quarters of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip back the plan -- drawn up by senior figures in the armed factions who are jailed in Israel -- Abbas appears on the surface to be in an unassailable position.

But confusion over the provisions of the constitution, and memories from Hamas's shock win over Abbas's Fatah faction in January's parliamentary election, have led some observers to believe further turbulence lies ahead.

Even while voicing confidence that the "yes" campaign will ultimately triumph, many within Fatah acknowledge that Abbas is putting his reputation on the line -- and that he will have to quit as Palestinian Authority president if he loses.

Hamas disputes Abbas's right even to organise a referendum, suspecting that he is merely looking for a way to shortcircuit the Islamists' government, which overturned Fatah's long hold on power.

"From the moment that the president decided to go for a referendum, he has had to be prepared to assume responsibility for the outcome, even if the prisoners' document is rejected," said Azzam al-Ahmed, head of the Fatah faction in parliament and a close ally of the president.

Ahmed predicted that Abbas would have to "submit his resignation and call new presidential elections if a majority rejects the prisoners' document".

As for Hamas, Ahmed said it would have to accept the result of the referendum because the basic law, the Palestinians' mini-constitution, "gives the Palestinian Authority president the right to dismiss the government if it does not act in accordance with his policies".

"President Abbas prefers at the moment to have a referendum instead of sacking the government as a result of the critical situation" in the Palestinian territories, where tensions between Fatah and Hamas followers have boiled over into deadly violence, Ahmed added.

Buoyed by polls which show strong popular support for the prisoners' plan, some Fatah officials see the referendum as an opportunity to exact revenge from Hamas after being badly whipped by them in the January elections.