Lull in Lankan fighting, but peace still far off

Both sides accused each other of attacks within hours of the deal on Wednesday, but there have been no reports of major clashes from then until Sunday -- a brief but definite lull since almost daily fighting erupted in early December.

"There is certainly less violence and less tension on the ground," said Helen Olafsdottir, spokeswoman for the Nordic mission monitoring the truce in Sri Lanka. "Whether it's sustainable or not needs to be seen, but it's a good sign."

The violence of the last two months had brought the four-year truce in the civil war to the verge of breakdown and the decision to meet in Geneva next month was a step back from the brink.

On Wednesday, the Tigers also promised Norwegian peace envoy Erik Solheim they would stop attacks if the military ceased harassment of Tamil civilians. It appears, at least for now, that both sides are trying to stick to that.

"The soldiers are scared by the rebel attacks and then retaliate, not knowing the difference between a fighter and a Tamil civilian," said a Western diplomat.

But he added: "We tend to believe that, by and large, the two sides could stop the violence if they want to."

There are however many opposed to peace -- among them a renegade faction of the rebels who the Tigers believe are being protected by the army, and hardliners from the majority Sinhalese community who are against concessions to the minority Tamils.

And the Tigers and the government are far apart on the core issue: the rebels want an autonomous Tamil homeland while the government has said it wants to keep a unitary state.

"That might be a bargaining position and it might move from there toward talking about some form of federalism, but that's still a long way off," said Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, an analyst with the independent Centre for Policy Alternatives in Colombo.

"The best outcome (in Geneva) would be an agreement on the ceasefire, centring it, and using that as a springboard for going further, to talk about political issues."

But others have warned that relying only on the peace process brokered by Norway would in the long term play into the hands of the Tigers and their shadowy leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran.

"Prabhakaran is a tactician," said Rohan Gunaratna, a security analyst at Singapore's Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies. "Every move he is making is to consolidate himself politically and militarily to move toward an independent Tamil state.