Showdown in Nepal as king refuses to budge

When he returns to Kathmandu on Sunday, after a three-week "informal visit" to the countryside, his reaction to the latest twists in a long-running political crisis will be closely watched. So far there is no indication that he is prepared to compromise, analysts and diplomats say.

"Things are headed for confrontation if he doesn't respond to what people are demanding," said Yubaraj Ghimire, editor of the Samay news weekly. "Then we would get into a phase of bloodshed and more repression."

King Gyanendra seized absolute power last February, finally losing patience with politicians he accused of ruining the country. But royal rule has brought no relief to his dirt-poor Himalayan kingdom, with civil liberties squeezed, human rights trampled and a Maoist rebellion undeterred.

"He has all the characteristics of an autocrat," said one Western diplomat.

"What we have seen in the last year is a systematic attempt to destroy major democratic parties and to undermine their leadership, and to place monarchists in key positions in local government, the civil service, security forces and constitutional bodies."

Gyanendra has promised to restore democracy by 2008, and as a first step plans to hold municipal elections on Feb. 8.

Political parties, who were not consulted about the polls, dismiss them as a farce, a crude attempt to legitimise the king's rule, and have refused to take part.

It is a position, which wins some sympathy abroad. The diplomat dismissed the polls as an attempt to show a "facade of democracy", as does the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

"For the palace these elections are a showdown -- they're not looking for reconciliation or compromise," said the think-tank's Nepal specialist, Rhoderick Chalmers.