Is Iraq falling apart?
IN the north Iraqi Kurds do not fly Iraq's flag anymore but their own Kurdish banner on public buildings, the first step to move away from Baghdad's control. As a sign of independence from Baghdad, leaders of the Kurdish north want to enter into separate oil agreement with foreign companies and the move has annoyed the Iraqi government. Furthermore, Kurdish leaders in Iraq are pushing ahead with a new constitution for their semi-autonomous region, a step that poses a new threat to unity of Iraq. The new constitution approved by the Kurdistan parliament on 24th June is scheduled for a referendum by September 2009. Most expect the Kurdish people will approve the constitution. This underscores the level of mistrust and bad faith between the region and the central government in Baghdad. The proposed constitution enshrines Kurdish claims to territories and the oil and gas beneath them. But these claims are disputed by both the Iraqi government and ethnic groups and were supposed to be resolved in talks begun quietly in June between the Iraqi and Kurdish governments, sponsored and backed by the United States. Instead the Kurdish parliament pushed ahead and passed the constitution, partly as a message that it would resist pressure from the US and the Iraqi governments to make concessions. The disputed areas, in northern Iraq, are volatile. There have been several tense confrontations between Kurdish and Iraqi forces, as well as frequent attacks aimed at inflaming sectarian and ethnic passions there. The Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is reportedly not on speaking terms with the Kurdish region's President Barzani. Iraqi political leaders have denounced the constitution as a step toward splintering Iraq. A growing number of Iraq experts believe disintegration of Iraq is inevitable in the long run, while others say that a con-federal Iraq might emerge. The question is whether the Sunnis will accept a con-federal country without the share of oil resources. Many suggest a plan to carve the country into three regions-- Kurdish in the north, Sunnis in the middle and Shiites in the south. Both the north and south regions are oil-rich while the middle is bereft of such resources. This will be an end to united Iraq and may remain the legacy of the unwanted war of 2003 by the Bush administration. As President Obama said in Cairo on June 4th: "Iraq was a war of choice that provoked strong differences in my country and around the world… I also believe that events in Iraq have reminded America of the need to diplomacy and build international consensus to resolve our problems whenever possible. Indeed, we can recall the words of Thomas Jefferson who said 'I hope our wisdom will grow with our power and teach us that the less we use our power greater it will be'." Michael Hudson, a Professor of Arab Studies at Georgetown University in Washington reportedly has stated that "What we are seeing now may be signs of things to come, but that was not so much inevitable as it is a result of our action." Implications of disintegration of Iraq as a country First, one worst-case scenario is that an autonomous Shiite region in the south of Iraq could encourage the Shiite minority in Saudi Arabia's north, a significant oil region, to press for autonomy or at the extreme may demand to join with its Iraqi brethren to the north. Any unrest in the region poses a blow to global economy dependent on oil. Second, some strategists say that the dissolution of Iraq will be a great boon for security of Israel. Zionists at the beginning of the 20th century wanted to create many small states and unthreatening Arab States. If Iraq's disintegration takes place, their wishes would be fulfilled. Third, if small states are carved out on the basis of sects, the whole Arab world would be at risk and a new map of small and weak states would emerge and the unity in the Arab world would be fragile. The Sunni dominated-states, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt, are worried about their security threat. Who are Kurds? A largely Sunni Muslim people with their own language and culture, most Kurds live in the generally contiguous areas of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Armenia and Syria a mountainous region of southwest Asia generally known as Kurdistan ("Land of the Kurds"). During the early 20th century, Kurds began to consider the concept of nationalism, a notion introduced by the British amid the division of traditional Kurdistan among neighboring countries. The 1920 Treaty of Sevres, which created the modern states of Iraq, Syria and Kuwait, was to have included the possibility of a Kurdish state in the region. However, it was never implemented although promised by Britain. After the overthrow of the Turkish monarchy by Kemal Ataturk Turkey, Iran and Iraq each agreed not to recognize an independent Kurdish state. In Iraq, Kurds have faced repression. After the Kurds supported Iran in the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, Saddam Hussein retaliated, razing villages and attacking peasants with chemical weapons. The Kurds rebelled again after the 1990 Gulf War only to be crushed again by Iraqi troops. About 2 million fled to Iran; 5 million currently live in Iraq. The United States has tried to create a safe haven for the Kurds within Iraq by imposing a "no-fly" zone north of the 36th parallel. Despite a common goal of independent statehood, the 20 million or so Kurds in the various countries are hardly unified. From 1994-98, two Iraqi Kurd factions the Kurdistan Democratic Party, led by Massoud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by Jalal Talabani fought a bloody war for power over northern Iraq. In September 1998, the two sides agreed to a power-sharing arrangement. Meanwhile, the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the PKK, currently waging a guerrilla insurgency in southeastern Turkey, has rejected the Iraqi Kurds' decision to seek local self-government within a federal Iraq. The PKK believes any independent Kurdish state should be a homeland for all Kurds. Over the years, tensions have flared between the PKK, led by Abdullah Ocalan, (now in prison) and Barzani's KDP faction, which controls the Turkey-Iraq border. Barzani has criticized the PKK for establishing military bases inside Iraqi-Kurd territory to launch attacks into Turkey. In recent days Turkey has changed its policy and extended its reconciliatory hands to Kurds for preservation of their language and culture. It could be argued that Turkey's bid of membership to the European Union may be blocked or delayed unless some sort of reconciliatory steps is accorded to the Kurds in the country. The current Turkish policy is based on realism and for its overall national interest. The author is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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