Which way is Pakistan going?
The latest political twist in Pakistan of banning former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif by the Supreme Court has plunged the country into greater instability where thousands of Sharif's supporters have demonstrated on the streets across the country.
There is a strong perception that the Zardari's Government, "champion of democracy", has convinced the Supreme Court to rule its most forceful democratic opponent Nawaz Sharif ineligible to stand for election because of previous criminal convictions, a rule that could apply just as well to Zardari himself. Observers say President Zardari did it to neutralize Sharif and consolidate power of his own party - Pakistan People's Party.
Furthermore, the Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif (Nawaz's brother) lost his post in the Punjab province when the Governor's rule was imposed by the Federal government. These destabilizing developments took place at a time when its relations with India was all time low due to alleged linkage of Pakistan to Mumbai terrorist attacks on 26th November.
The political war against Sharif brothers is nothing new in Pakistan because Zardari's PPP has always been opposed to Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League (N) and both parties want to control and rule Pakistan as they had done in the past with questionable records.
Because of the failure of political parties to unite themselves on national issues, Army intervened in October 1999 ousting the elected Nawaz Sharif's government. During the long years of Musharraf's rule, Pakistan presented almost the classical ideal of the divided state, where part of the state was against the terrorists and part of it was in league with the terrorists.
The West's obligation was that it could not let go of the part of the state that co-operated, for fear of even worse guys taking full power.
The Mumbai attacks changed the scenario further. The big powers from the West call on Pakistan to make sure it doesn't sponsor terrorism against India, to shut down Lashkar-e-Taiyeba terrorist networks that operate in the country, to make a better effort against the Taliban.
President Zardari has adopted a very clever move. To please the West, he has stated that the threat of militancy in the border region (with Afghanistan) is not just a danger to Afghanistan but also a threat to Pakistan itself, which threatens the existence of the Pakistani state. But at the same time he has been harsh on his political opponents; he has not surrendered his absolute power, did not restore independent judges in the Supreme Court contrary to his promise and tried to divide political elements to rule the country as a civilian "dictator."
In recent days, the Pakistan Government has made a deal, in part with the Taliban, to allow the imposition of full sha'ria law in the Swat Valley, which is very close to the capital, Islamabad. Some suggest that it should at least reduce Pakistan's education bill, as one of the Taliban's chief grievances with the world is girls going to school.
In the Swat Valley, the Pakistani army will no longer contest control with extremists and in turn the extremists will not kill members of Pakistan army. This deal has not been looked at comfortably by the West as these deals have not worked in the past. They have always unravelled but only after allowing the extremists a good chance to consolidate, to rearm and reorganise themselves.
Meanwhile, the hapless Pakistani army, dreaming of battles against India, does not know whether it is fighting the Taliban or embracing it. At the same time, Zardari's Government has released Dr. A.Q. Khan from house arrest, the man responsible for Paskistan's nuclear arsenal. Zardari has formalised Khan's status as the hero of the nation.
The West consider him the single greatest proliferator of nuclear weapons technology to "rogue" states. Part of the implausible story General Musharraf used to tell was that Khan did this without the knowledge of the Pakistani military.
On Mumbai massacre, the West considers Pakistan has done no more than round up the usual suspects after India provided it with incontrovertible proof of Pakistani complicity in November's Mumbai terrorist massacres.
The real relationship between the Pakistani military and the civilian government was demonstrated when Islamabad offered to send the head of its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to India for consultations on fighting terrorism, only to have that trip overruled by the military which decided it would be beneath its dignity to engage in such consultations.
Observers suggest the Musharraf rule for almost nine years was not just because he was a dictator but that he walked on both sides of the street. He didn't deliver anything to Pakistan in exchange for subverting its democracy. He took $12 billion in US aid to fight the terrorists; however terrorism eventually increased in Pakistan when he finally resigned in August 2008.
On 27th February, Nawaz Sharif reportedly said that 'I think we are heading for some sort of unfortunate situation. There are a lot of forces, the militants, the extremists they are all there to take advantage… It (government) cannot concentrate on the very big issues we are confronted with." He accused President Zardari of "declaring martial law on democracy".
Pakistan's political problems affect South Asia, including Bangladesh, in three ways. First, What happens in Pakistan greatly influences South Asia, particularly in India, and vice versa.
Second, Pakistan has become the global centre of jihadi terrorism, almost certainly the haven for Osama bin Laden and the al-Qa'ida leadership. The hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis who travel back and forth within South Asia have proved an intelligence nightmare for South Asian nations. And third, Pakistan possesses between 50 and 100 nuclear weapons. It has been involved in nuclear stand-offs with India, and in the past has allegedly sold nuclear technology to nations such as North Korea and Libya. Perhaps the greatest concern is the "steadfast efforts" by the extremist groups to infiltrate Pakistan's nuclear laboratories, the heart of a vast infrastructure that employs tens of thousands of people.
It is hoped that politicians in Pakistan rise to the occasion and put the country above their personal interests. It is a nation of 160 million within South Asia and South Asian nations must ensure that Pakistan does not become a 'failed' state or a state ruled by Taliban.
Some observers suggested that a delegation of civil society from South Asian nations may visit Pakistan and hold discussions with Pakistani leaders that Pakistan stands at a cross roads and they have to be vigilant and united at this critical hour of the nation.
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