Pranab Mukherjee's visit to Dhaka
ALTHOUGH India's Minister for External Affairs, Pranab Mukherjee's visit on 9th February, has been called a "goodwill" one, the visit is seen as important for two reasons: it will be the first visit of an Indian senior Minister after Awami league-led government's assumption of office, and secondly he is currently discharging additional responsibilities in the absence of the Indian Prime Minister Dr. Singh.
Why the visit?
The visit may be a "sounding board" to get some response from Bangladesh on security and transit issues, while for Bangladesh, the subjects such as, maritime boundary, implementation of land border agreement of 1974, huge trade deficit and management and sharing of waters of common rivers appear to be the top priorities because they relate "bread and butter" issues for Bangladesh people. Let me discuss the Bangladesh issues in brief. Maritime Boundary
Bangladesh-India maritime boundary has been pending since 1974. The discussion on the maritime boundary should commence at a political level and it is suggested that the Foreign Ministers of the two countries may meet and take the thread from the discussions of former Foreign Ministers in 1975. At the political level, the government leaders should look at the problem from a broader view of bilateral relations and are not confined to legal and technical niceties The bottom line is that India's political leaders must decide as to whether Bangladesh would get a fair and equitable share of the economic zone and continental shelf of the Bay of Bengal. If bilateral negotiations fail to resolve the issue, it is appropriate to refer the issue to an International Tribunal for arbitration as India and Pakistan referred the Rann of Kutch boundary issue to an International Arbitration Tribunal in 1966. Implementation of the Land Border Agreement of 1974
The Sheikh-Mujib Land Boundary Agreement of 1974 has not yet been implemented because India has not ratified it. Under the Agreement, the Indian enclaves in Bangladesh and the Bangladesh enclaves in India "should be exchanged expeditiously". There are 111 Indian enclaves in Bangladesh with 17,158 acres with a population of 200,000 people, whose sufferings know no bounds. It was reported sometime ago that one inhabitant said that "We want to be Bangladeshis as early as possible. We cannot express in words about the sufferings we tolerate from the India Border Security Force". This is a humanitarian problem and it needs to be resolved quickly. Furthermore, the uncertain borders, in particular, the river boundaries, have often resulted in clashes between the two security forces and the un-demarcated 6.5 miles border in the east needs to be resolved as soon as possible. Trade deficit
India's informal and formal exports to Bangladesh stand at around $5 billion dollars while Bangladesh's exports are about $ 358 million during the financial year of 2007-08. It is quite true that India's economy is large and there could be a reasonable size of trade deficit with India. The deficit is so large that it may be perceived by majority of people in Bangladesh, rightly or wrongly, as "economic exploitation" of Bangladesh by India. Free Trade Agreement with India is not the answer because the devil is in the details of the agreement. The question is to what extent and how severely India's import restrictions constrain the exports to India? If the threat is from illegal imports from India to Bangladesh, a Free Trade Agreement will intensify the scope and extent of the competition. Furthermore would the gain in increased exports to India be large enough to compensate the losses in domestic production from increased import competition from India? Empirical evidence suggests that the 2000 Sri Lanka-India Free Trade Agreement has not worked in favour of Sri Lanka. SAFTA (South Asia Free Trade Agreement) is not being executed properly and according to Shafqat Munir, President of the Journalists for Democracy and Human Rights, said on 2nd February in Dhaka that the free trade concept would not be materialised unless a free movement of people was allowed. In the past, the representatives of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Bangladesh met their counterpart from India in Dhaka. The non-tariff barriers were high on the agenda. For the first time, the two apex bodies discussed formally, among others, the removal of non-tariff barriers relating to trade and investment. The recommendations of the meeting include setting up new land customs setting up of testing laboratories close to the border areas, simplification of licensing system, documentation and procedural requirements and efficiency development of the banks of northeastern states of India (NEI). The bottom line is what we need is not free trade but fair trade. Fair trade will be a "win-win" situation for both countries. Management and water sharing of common rivers
The direct effects of trans-boundary control of rivers in India (54 are rivers with India) are drying up the rivers downstream in Bangladesh and causing drought, particularly in the western and northern region in Bangladesh. Sharing of trans-boundary rivers in Teesta, Dharla, Dudkumar, Monu, Khowai, Gomti and Muhuri rivers is still pending. The proposed Tipaimukh Multipurpose Hydroelectric Project in the east in India, conceived to generate 1500 MW by building a dam on the Barak River, will adversely affect the flows of Meghna, the life-line in Bangladesh, besides the dam would have adverse environmental impact on Bangladesh that share the same river basin The JRC has not functioned on the management of common rivers among the co-riparian countries because of the absence of political will of India because India wants deal with each country bilaterally. Conclusion
The Hasina government wants mutually beneficial relations with India but India has to come up with sincerity and fairness to resolve the long-standing aforesaid bilateral issues. There is a view that dealing with a single bilateral issue separately with India does not make sense because all pending issues are inter-linked and affect directly people in Bangladesh. Bangladesh needs to negotiate on a package of issues with India for settlement. The author is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
The visit may be a "sounding board" to get some response from Bangladesh on security and transit issues, while for Bangladesh, the subjects such as, maritime boundary, implementation of land border agreement of 1974, huge trade deficit and management and sharing of waters of common rivers appear to be the top priorities because they relate "bread and butter" issues for Bangladesh people. Let me discuss the Bangladesh issues in brief. Maritime Boundary
Bangladesh-India maritime boundary has been pending since 1974. The discussion on the maritime boundary should commence at a political level and it is suggested that the Foreign Ministers of the two countries may meet and take the thread from the discussions of former Foreign Ministers in 1975. At the political level, the government leaders should look at the problem from a broader view of bilateral relations and are not confined to legal and technical niceties The bottom line is that India's political leaders must decide as to whether Bangladesh would get a fair and equitable share of the economic zone and continental shelf of the Bay of Bengal. If bilateral negotiations fail to resolve the issue, it is appropriate to refer the issue to an International Tribunal for arbitration as India and Pakistan referred the Rann of Kutch boundary issue to an International Arbitration Tribunal in 1966. Implementation of the Land Border Agreement of 1974
The Sheikh-Mujib Land Boundary Agreement of 1974 has not yet been implemented because India has not ratified it. Under the Agreement, the Indian enclaves in Bangladesh and the Bangladesh enclaves in India "should be exchanged expeditiously". There are 111 Indian enclaves in Bangladesh with 17,158 acres with a population of 200,000 people, whose sufferings know no bounds. It was reported sometime ago that one inhabitant said that "We want to be Bangladeshis as early as possible. We cannot express in words about the sufferings we tolerate from the India Border Security Force". This is a humanitarian problem and it needs to be resolved quickly. Furthermore, the uncertain borders, in particular, the river boundaries, have often resulted in clashes between the two security forces and the un-demarcated 6.5 miles border in the east needs to be resolved as soon as possible. Trade deficit
India's informal and formal exports to Bangladesh stand at around $5 billion dollars while Bangladesh's exports are about $ 358 million during the financial year of 2007-08. It is quite true that India's economy is large and there could be a reasonable size of trade deficit with India. The deficit is so large that it may be perceived by majority of people in Bangladesh, rightly or wrongly, as "economic exploitation" of Bangladesh by India. Free Trade Agreement with India is not the answer because the devil is in the details of the agreement. The question is to what extent and how severely India's import restrictions constrain the exports to India? If the threat is from illegal imports from India to Bangladesh, a Free Trade Agreement will intensify the scope and extent of the competition. Furthermore would the gain in increased exports to India be large enough to compensate the losses in domestic production from increased import competition from India? Empirical evidence suggests that the 2000 Sri Lanka-India Free Trade Agreement has not worked in favour of Sri Lanka. SAFTA (South Asia Free Trade Agreement) is not being executed properly and according to Shafqat Munir, President of the Journalists for Democracy and Human Rights, said on 2nd February in Dhaka that the free trade concept would not be materialised unless a free movement of people was allowed. In the past, the representatives of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Bangladesh met their counterpart from India in Dhaka. The non-tariff barriers were high on the agenda. For the first time, the two apex bodies discussed formally, among others, the removal of non-tariff barriers relating to trade and investment. The recommendations of the meeting include setting up new land customs setting up of testing laboratories close to the border areas, simplification of licensing system, documentation and procedural requirements and efficiency development of the banks of northeastern states of India (NEI). The bottom line is what we need is not free trade but fair trade. Fair trade will be a "win-win" situation for both countries. Management and water sharing of common rivers
The direct effects of trans-boundary control of rivers in India (54 are rivers with India) are drying up the rivers downstream in Bangladesh and causing drought, particularly in the western and northern region in Bangladesh. Sharing of trans-boundary rivers in Teesta, Dharla, Dudkumar, Monu, Khowai, Gomti and Muhuri rivers is still pending. The proposed Tipaimukh Multipurpose Hydroelectric Project in the east in India, conceived to generate 1500 MW by building a dam on the Barak River, will adversely affect the flows of Meghna, the life-line in Bangladesh, besides the dam would have adverse environmental impact on Bangladesh that share the same river basin The JRC has not functioned on the management of common rivers among the co-riparian countries because of the absence of political will of India because India wants deal with each country bilaterally. Conclusion
The Hasina government wants mutually beneficial relations with India but India has to come up with sincerity and fairness to resolve the long-standing aforesaid bilateral issues. There is a view that dealing with a single bilateral issue separately with India does not make sense because all pending issues are inter-linked and affect directly people in Bangladesh. Bangladesh needs to negotiate on a package of issues with India for settlement. The author is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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