Obama electioneering: Symbolism and substance
Obama, though being 50% white Kansan and 50% black Kenyan ethnically but 100% Afro-American by choice, presented himself as an all-American candidate to the US electorate. This symbolism was unavoidable. A majority of the voters are white. Unless he got their vote, Obama couldn't have won even if he got overwhelming black and Hispanic support, as these two groups together are a minority.
As it happened, Obama received 43% of the white votes, more than what the successful Clinton and the unsuccessful Kerry got. To attract voters, Obama used another powerful symbol: the idea and need for change.
Most governments, after being eight years in power, usually lose public support because of the cumulative dilatory effect of their sins of commission and omission. By this logic, the current Republican administration would have become unpopular, helping the Democrats. In reality this happened in spades. Bush's popularity spiraled downwards since 2003 to a measly 28%, the lowest of any US president.
The US public considered his administration a failure domestically (mainly because of a sinking economy) and abroad (the disastrous Iraq war, The Patriot Acts, Guantanamo et al.). The electorate was ready for a change in the tone and texture of policies especially on the domestic economy particularly after the financial system's collapse last September. This desire for change was so widespread that Obama's main challengers - Hillary and McCain - both co-opted change in their manifestoes.
But Obama exploited this desire most substantively. He developed a superb organization oiled by vast amounts of money raised online from many small donors. In contrast to McCain, Obama used the pervasive and instantaneous powers of the web to communicate his message nationally and internationally. Though Obama didn't campaign as an African-American, his victory gave the African-Americans a big lift, helped dilute the stain of the original US sin of slavery and showed how much civil rights have progressed since 1960s.
But not too much should be made of this symbolism. US blacks' economic condition will not likely change much under an Obama administration nor will racism go away. But both areas should noticeably improve over time.
Again, the assertion that Obama's victory suggests that any body can rise to the top in the
US should be taken at face value. US society favours the haves. Obama won because he managed the tools - a relevant message and lots of money - used by the previous white US presidents more effectively than his competitors.
Will Obama's colour make it easier for other non-whites to aspire to The White House? In theory, yes. But slavery gives the US white-black relationship a poignant texture that's missing in white America's connection with other minorities. Thus, the reality may be greater resistance from Caucasian America to giving the presidency to another minority any time soon. Can there be too much of a good thing?
Obama's willingness to hold discussions instead of waging wars was a refreshing contrast to Bush's bellicosity that McCain threatened to replicate in his foreign policy. But this doesn't make Obama a soft president. While addressing a rally against the Iraq war in Chicago on 2 October 2002, Obama denounced the impending war as "dumb," "rash" and "based not on reason but on passion."
But in the same speech, Obama said five times: "I don't oppose all wars" and considered the US Civil War, the Second World War and the battle against terrorism after 9/11 as justified. In truth, a dovish president is inconsistent with the innate character of the US as a national security state. It's noteworthy that Obama has called for more resources for the Afghan war.
If Obama's preferred first response is diplomacy that, in and of itself, would be a welcome departure from Bush's belligerency. But Obama is unlikely to be reluctant to use military power - where US has a still distinct but somewhat eroding comparative advantage - in core national interests.
Obama will be a realist rather than an ideologue in foreign policy. In he Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Napoleon, Karl Marx wrote pragmatically: "The tradition of all dead generations weighs like a nightmare on the brains of the living."
Obama may find that the more he tries to change, the more things remain the same (Alice in Wonderland). Nevertheless, Obama's victory represents a high point in US politics and suggests a more rational approach to US domestic and foreign policy issues. His presidency will enjoy much support inside and outside the USA till he makes mistakes or consistently performs below expectations.
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