The transitional period
Israel, Gaza and the challenges of Obama
DOMESTICALLY, in the Israeli arena, just three months prior to the elections on the 10th of February 2009, many events are occurring in the high leadership echelons of the major political parties. In the Labor Party, Ehud Barak is facing serious challenges to his leadership. All the polls predict he and his party will suffer a real defeat in these next elections. Various political leaders, including Uzi Baram and Ami Ayalon and several authors such as Amos Oz and David Grossman, who identify with Labor, have deserted the party.
Nearly all the surveys predict Labor receiving between 9-11 seats in the next Knesset. The real reason is Barak and his governing style. Although he talks about living modestly, he is currently living in Migdalay Akyrov, one of the most prestigious, expensive and luxurious towers in Tel-Aviv. Until last January, his second wife directed a company, which connected businessmen from abroad with Barak and individuals close to him. When individuals close to Kadima disclosed this scandal, his wife closed the company.
Barak, as the leader of the Labor Party, is seen as a dictator, even among his own friends in the party. This style has angered the members and they have started to feel that he is the single governor of the party. He also neutralized the negotiations with Tsipi Livni and prevented his friends from remaining Knesset members for many months to come.
On the Palestinian front, as the Defense Minister he was accused by some of his colleagues of being the person who purposely violated the cease-fire with Hamas in order to stress his leadership as Defense Minister. The latest incident in which 12 Palestinians were killed in Gaza obviously shows that Barak, using many pretexts, would like to show his authority in security and military affairs by striking Gaza and showing that he is taking the lead in the conflict. However, the launching of more rockets into Ashkelon has neutralized his plan and it seems that he will again agree to the terms of the Hudna. Moveover, his friends in the Labor Party will now hear more about his "deterrence policy".
Barak is losing his perspective and as a result, he is losing his status in the Labor Party. The real core of the Labor Party is moving to other parties or resigning from the political arena. Surveys have been very unfavorable to him. In that sense, the Labor Party will not succeed in making the kind of gains that would enable it to control the next coalition or to contain Benjamin Netanyahu from becoming the next Prime Minister.
Barak does not have many options. He might join Kadima and initiate a merger with this party. After the upcoming Labor Party primaries, Barak could try to unite with Kadima in order to maintain his status in the Israeli political system. In that sense, the Kadima Party and the Labor Party might get more seats as a result of this union by creating an alternative centrist force in the Israeli political system. In addition to strengthening the center it would weaken the right wing parties. However, this centrist party also does not have a proper solution to the Palestinian problem and would engage in endless dialogue and management resolution and not in real conflict resolution.
Tsipi Livni made a strategic mistake when she failed to form a coalition. It will work against her later in any future coalition after the next elections because she will face the same challenges that she faced in September 2008. Tsipi Livni might succeed in getting more seats, but there are great doubts whether she can really succeed in forming a government and in governing.
Eventually, Benjamin Netanyahu will exploit the comprehensive decline of the Labor Party for his interests. Currently he is promoting highly extremist figures to join to party, including former Chief of Staff Boogi Yaalon, former Minister Dan Meridor and former MK Benny Begin, promising them to be part of his cabinet. All of these figures are right wingers who perceive the Likud today as the best and strongest right wing force that can impose a solution according to Israeli political interests. All of these figures believe in an Economic Peace; a peace that will be signed or imposed according to Israeli national security interests, which means total control of the West Bank and total control of the borders with Jordan, while surrounding the West Bank and Jerusalem with a wall, and at the same time making Jerusalem the capitol only of the Jewish people. Israel will try to be Hegemonic in the region. Netanyahu believes in that and all the new members who join him also believe in that terminology.
It is quite certain that this Economic Peace of Netanyahu will exploit very well the split in the Palestinian camp. Netanyahu will try to continue the dialogue with the Palestinian Authority but with a low profile because he has nothing to propose to them.
The real problem will be in Gaza. Hamas will not agree that Netanyahu impose his will. Conflict with Hamas, therefore, is inevitable. Hamas is currently strong and controlling the Gaza Strip. Hamas has succeeded to some extent to mobilize and recruit people for the sake of the Hamas regime. Hamas seems to agree on the Hudna and the cease fire but conditional on the opening of the entrances and importing goods from Israel or from Egypt. If the entrances remain closed, the rockets will be launched often and will disrupt the normal life of the people in the southern part of Israel. The mechanism of the Egyptian intervention has failed. Therefore, we can safely say that the current situation will continue to transpire.
Hany El Masri, a political analyst from Nablus, called on the international community and the Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank to change course in the aftermath of Obama's election as the new American president. He asked for change in the Quartet's dynamic of dealing with the Palestinians in Gaza. He also argued that the US and the Europeans should promise to implement the Annapolis Agreement, which would create a Palestinian State. Currently, there is no Palestinian State.
El Masri also asked the current Palestinian leadership to change its way of negotiating and to incorporate both Hamas in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah in developing one strategy toward the next US administration. This might be right if the Obama administration is not too weak to deal with all the international situations. Otherwise, Israel will continue to try to contain Hamas, but without much success, and will continue to conduct the policy of "tit for tat" until there will be some kind of decisive solution. This will not happen with the new strategic circumstances and the weakness of the Israeli leadership, which prevents imposing any real solution.
The unrest in the international system, which detracted attention from the Palestinian problem, will continue. The humanitarian disaster in Gaza and the siege policy will also continue to be a threat for further escalation. If the new American administration will not help in settling the issues then we can say that other factors on the ground will continue to effect a possible solution, if there is one.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments