After Musharraf what?
AFTER resignation of President Musharraf, it is disappointing to note that Pakistan's politicians are divided as ever. The PPP and PML (N), the two largest parties in Pakistan are deeply split on national issues. PPP is led by Bhutto's widower Asif Ali Zardari and PML (N) is led by former Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Disagreement on three national issues
(a) Who will be the next President of Pakistan?
(b) How to reinstate the deposed 60 judges including the deposed Chief Justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Chaudhry
(c) Whether Musharraf should be tried for violating the constitution or given immunity? Nawaz Sharif wants the new President from less populated provinces, such as Baluchistan, while Zardari wants the post from his province Sindh. Meanwhile, PPP nominated Asif Zardari for the President of Pakistan. Mixed signals are reported in the media from Nawaz Sharif on the nomination. The election will take place on 6th September. Meanwhile the chairman of the Senate is acting as President. Also Nawaz Sharif wants all the 60 judges, including the Chief Justice, reinstated by an executive order. But Asif Zardari wants that they should be reinstated through a resolution of Parliament that includes clipping of some powers of the independent-minded Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. At the back of his mind Zardari thinks if the Chief Justice is back to his post he might declare the amnesty given by Musharraf to Zardari on corruption charges illegal, and he will be charged with corruption. Furthermore, it is believed that Zardari wants current Chief Justice Dogar to stay because he is from Sindh while Nawaz Sharif thinks that Dogar should go because he was unconstitutionally installed as Chief Justice by President Musharraf under emergency rule. The third issue is what to do with the ex-dictor. Nawaz Sharif and lawyers want his trial for violating the constitution by imposing emergency rule and deposing 60 judges including the chief justice. PPP does not want that Musharraf should be tried, and would give a safe passage if he wants to go overseas. The ex-president is the fourth army General who came to power through a coup in October 1999 but was not forced by any other army General to hand over power. General Ayub Khan was forced by GeneralYahaya Khan to hand over power to him, while General Yahaya Khan was compelled by General Gul Hassan to hand over power. General Zia ul Haq died in mysterious circumstances in 1988 after remaining 11 years in power. He is the only dictator in Pakistan who resigned after almost nine years in power to avoid impeachment proceedings. It is likely that Pakistan Army does not want "one of their men" to be put on trial. It is reported that the army wants him to get out of the country for a few years. Musharraf perhaps thinks differently and wants to live in Pakistan. He thinks that he has done nothing wrong and is indispensable for the stability of Pakistan. He imagines that both Nawaz Sharif and Zardari will be at each other's throat within six months and Musharraf would be called back to power by people for stability in Pakistan as General De Gaulle was recalled in 1958 to save France from political chaos and instability. Given the above background, it is easy to note the wide divergence of views of political leaders and that of the ex-President Musharraf. Each thinks that he is right. How it unfolds in coming days is another matter. Musharraf's role before and after 9/11
The question is what had been the role of President Musharraf before and after 9/11? Observers say that it was while Musharraf was a senior figure and then chief of the army that the Pakistani military created the Taliban as their instrument in Afghanistan. All through Musharraf's career, he has known Pakistan to be partly responsible for nuclear proliferation. A few years ago in Sydney Musharraf explained he knew nothing of the efforts of Pakistan's chief scientist, A.Q. Khan, to sell nuclear technology to other nations. Analysts say that if the Pakistani military really knew nothing about Khan's activities, they were the most incompetent military in the history of the world, as control of nuclear weapons technology is always the single most important concern of any military that possesses them. Similarly, observers claim the Pakistani army under Musharraf had a long and bloody record of supporting militants in Indian-controlled Kashmir. He was behind the unnecessary Kargil war and reportedly kept secret from his political masters. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had to go to Washington to deal with President Clinton with the consequences of the Kargil war. Musharraf: an US ally
So how is it that Musharraf was hailed as an ally of the West in the war on terror and was often praised by US President George W. Bush After the 9/11 attacks the US was in a fury. It demanded that the Taliban, then in government in Afghanistan, hand over the al-Qa'ida leadership. When the Taliban refused, the US wanted Pakistani co-operation to move against the Taliban. Musharraf agreed, but only after he had been threatened with the most dire consequences by the US Deputy Secretary of State. Both Musharraf and Washington then made a virtue of necessity. Musharraf said he would turn Pakistan totally against terrorism. He not only facilitated the US operation against Afghanistan, he periodically rounded up al-Qa'ida leaders in Pakistan. But the notable thing about the US operation in Afghanistan was it did not capture or kill the top Taliban leadership, who all took shelter in Pakistan. During the subsequent years, as Musharraf pretended to be a friend of the West, he took nearly $US12 billion from Washington, but he never arrested a single significant Taliban leader. It became clear that the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence never gave up its investment in the Taliban. Musharraf and his military cohorts thought they could outsmart everybody, walking both sides of every street. But finally everyone turned against Musharraf. The terrorists hate him for his operations against al-Qa'ida. The Pakistani people came to hate him for his trashing of their democracy, and his political allies were humiliated in the last election. Furthermore, the campaign against the militants is unpopular in Pakistan because it is seen as an American conflict foisted on the country. Musharraf could not fully explain to the public that the effort to quell the Taliban is in Pakistan's interests as well. This has led to his unpopularity because people perceived him as "an agent of the US". Meanwhile, members of the Taliban taking refuge in Pakistan's tribal areas have radicalised Pakistani tribal leaders, so that there is now a roaring Pakistani Taliban movement and, as the economy and the state decline, extremism is moving beyond these areas and gaining wider support in Pakistan. Ultimately Pakistan must confront its extremists for its own reasons. It needs a military that can do its real job and civic institutions, such as the judiciary, that can do theirs. Cleaning up the mess Musharraf has left is a huge task for Pakistan's squabbling and unimpressive politicians. Pakistan's instability and South Asia Pakistan's political problems affect South Asia including Bangladesh in three ways. What happens in Pakistan greatly influences South Asia, particularly in India, and vice versa. Second, Pakistan has become the global centre of jihadi terrorism, almost certainly the haven for Osama bin Laden and the al-Qa'ida leadership. The hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis who travel back and forth within South Asia have proved an intelligence nightmare for South Asian nations. And third, Pakistan possesses between 50 and 100 nuclear weapons. It has been involved in nuclear stand-offs with India, and in the past has sold nuclear technology to nations such as North Korea and Libya. Perhaps the greatest concern is the "steadfast efforts" by the extremist groups to infiltrate Pakistan's nuclear laboratories, the heart of a vast infrastructure that employs tens of thousands of people. Conclusion
It is hoped that politicians in Pakistan rise to the occasion and put the country above their personal interests. It is a nation of 160 million within South Asia and South Asian nations must ensure that Pakistan does not become a 'failed' state. Some observers suggested that a delegation of civil society from South Asian nations may visit Pakistan and hold discussions with Pakistani leaders. Pakistan stands at a cross roads and they have to be vigilant and united at this critical hour of the nation.
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