South Ossetia: Why this unnecessary war?
THE first thing it reminds me is of an old adage: "Do not punch a bear on the nose unless it is tied down".
On 8th August, pro-US Georgia President Mikheil Saakasvili attempted to integrate the breakaway territory South Ossetia at a time when world leaders focused their eyes on the opening ceremony of Beijing Olympics. It was a great political mistake to regain control of a territory whose population is about 70,000 that are almost all Russians.
Now Russia has not only recaptured South Ossetia from Georgian soldiers but also attacked some of the military bases in Georgia. The President is reportedly in hiding and fear, confusion, and anger is omnipresent among the Georgians.
The French foreign minister has been trying to draw a ceasefire (France heads the European Union until December) but it seems Russia will ensure that in future Georgia does not embark on "silly" adventures.
The former British Foreign Secretary Lord Owen remarked that it is "absurd" to treat Russia like the Soviet Union and that Georgia made a miscalculation in South Ossetia for which it is now paying dearly.
Miscalculation of Georgia's President
The mistake to integrate South Ossetia by Georgia has been for a number of reasons and some of them are described below: First, Russia is always likely to respond to such miscalculated action. It already has forces there leading the peacekeeping force, which was agreed back in the easier days of 1992 between President Boris Yeltsin of Russia and President Edward Shevardnadze of Georgia. Second, Russia maintains close contacts with the leadership in South Ossetia where separatists welcome Moscow's supportive stance. To Georgia's deep annoyance, most South Ossetians have Russian passports and the Russian rouble is commonly used in trade. One-time wrestling champion Eduard Kokoiti, or Kokoyev, won unrecognised presidential elections in South Ossetia in December 2001 and again in November 2006. Third, Russia has not been comfortable with the pro-West governments of Ukraine and Georgia. Furthermore Russia is angered that they want to be a part of NATO. Georgia and Ukraine were denied membership of NATO in April, although they were allowed to develop an action plan that could lead to membership one day. The Americans argued for both countries to be accepted, but the Germans and others countered that the region was too unstable for these countries to join at the moment and that in particular Georgia, a state with a border dispute, should not be given formal NATO support. Fourth, Russia has been displeased when the West supported the separation of Kosovo from Serbia and warned of consequences. This might be one of them. Of course, Russia has not argued in this crisis that it is simply doing what the West did in Kosovo - that would undermine its own argument that states should not be broken up without agreement. But everyone knows that underneath everything Kosovo is not far from its mind in the war in South Ossetia. Fifth, Georgia's President Shevardnadze's decision in 1992 to allow Russia into South Ossetia as part of the peacekeeping force enabled a very different Russian government under Putin to look at the problem of South Ossetia with a new dimension because of the aggressive policy of the US under the Bush administration. It was not hard for Russia to justify its intervention. It simply argues that its citizens are not only at risk but also under attack. Sixth, the West does not appear to handle Russia with its reinvigorated power. Russia has been flexing its muscles with neighbours. Pressure is put on neighbouring Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, with threats to natural gas supplies. Import of wine has stopped from Georgia. It cut coal exports, timber supplies and freight traffic to show its displeasure with Estonia. Military spending is running at a post-Soviet record. New nuclear submarines, missiles, and aircraft have been commissioned. The new approach is backed by a defence budget that has jumped by 25% per cent to $40 billion this year. The Defence Ministry has announced a $222 billion rearmament program. It is aimed at replacing half of the current military equipment by 2015. It includes new early-warning radar, new intercontinental missiles and a fleet of supersonic bombers. Seventh, strategic bombers are back over the North Sea between Britain and Scandinavia for the first time in 17 years. A restored base in Syria will give the Russian navy a presence in the Mediterranean Sea and Indonesia signed a $1.2 billion deal to buy Russian submarines, tanks and helicopters last month. Observers believe defence expenditure is largely a response to Western pressure. "The Americans are circling Russia with radars and installing anti-ballistic missiles close to our borders", says the defence commentator Colonel Viktor Litovkin. He further adds, "It is a matter of serious concern. We are being provoked into a new arms race. That is not in Russia's interest. The Americans do not want another competitor and their moves to achieve global strike capability are quite provocative. NATO has deviated from its original charter and assumed responsibility on a global scale for everything that happens. The West looks as if it is imposing its ideology on others, just as the former Soviet Union did. Fortunately we have recovered from this disease, but the Bush Administration has now caught it." Eighth, South Ossetia is a strategic region for Russia and the fighting presented the most dangerous crisis in the years in Caucasus region, a key conduit for the flow of oil from the Caspian Sea to world markets. Observers say that Russia has been annoyed when oil from Caspian Sea was transported through pipeline by a Western company to Turkey through Georgia, instead of through Russia to Baltic Sea. Finally, some observers say that the US wanted to find out the military capability, determination and power of Russia through the conflict because Georgia would not launch military operations on 8th August without the support of the Bush administration. Conclusion
Georgia's President must blame himself for all the mess he has created in the region. It is one thing to claim a territory but to grab it with military power from Russia is a different ball game. Georgia will have to pay a heavy price for its unwarranted adventure into South Ossetia. There is little doubt that conflicts arise from consideration of power politics. A balance of power between the US and Russia is taking place in Caucasus region. There seems to be no ready solution until and unless the US and Russia agree on a political framework for stability and peace.
The mistake to integrate South Ossetia by Georgia has been for a number of reasons and some of them are described below: First, Russia is always likely to respond to such miscalculated action. It already has forces there leading the peacekeeping force, which was agreed back in the easier days of 1992 between President Boris Yeltsin of Russia and President Edward Shevardnadze of Georgia. Second, Russia maintains close contacts with the leadership in South Ossetia where separatists welcome Moscow's supportive stance. To Georgia's deep annoyance, most South Ossetians have Russian passports and the Russian rouble is commonly used in trade. One-time wrestling champion Eduard Kokoiti, or Kokoyev, won unrecognised presidential elections in South Ossetia in December 2001 and again in November 2006. Third, Russia has not been comfortable with the pro-West governments of Ukraine and Georgia. Furthermore Russia is angered that they want to be a part of NATO. Georgia and Ukraine were denied membership of NATO in April, although they were allowed to develop an action plan that could lead to membership one day. The Americans argued for both countries to be accepted, but the Germans and others countered that the region was too unstable for these countries to join at the moment and that in particular Georgia, a state with a border dispute, should not be given formal NATO support. Fourth, Russia has been displeased when the West supported the separation of Kosovo from Serbia and warned of consequences. This might be one of them. Of course, Russia has not argued in this crisis that it is simply doing what the West did in Kosovo - that would undermine its own argument that states should not be broken up without agreement. But everyone knows that underneath everything Kosovo is not far from its mind in the war in South Ossetia. Fifth, Georgia's President Shevardnadze's decision in 1992 to allow Russia into South Ossetia as part of the peacekeeping force enabled a very different Russian government under Putin to look at the problem of South Ossetia with a new dimension because of the aggressive policy of the US under the Bush administration. It was not hard for Russia to justify its intervention. It simply argues that its citizens are not only at risk but also under attack. Sixth, the West does not appear to handle Russia with its reinvigorated power. Russia has been flexing its muscles with neighbours. Pressure is put on neighbouring Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, with threats to natural gas supplies. Import of wine has stopped from Georgia. It cut coal exports, timber supplies and freight traffic to show its displeasure with Estonia. Military spending is running at a post-Soviet record. New nuclear submarines, missiles, and aircraft have been commissioned. The new approach is backed by a defence budget that has jumped by 25% per cent to $40 billion this year. The Defence Ministry has announced a $222 billion rearmament program. It is aimed at replacing half of the current military equipment by 2015. It includes new early-warning radar, new intercontinental missiles and a fleet of supersonic bombers. Seventh, strategic bombers are back over the North Sea between Britain and Scandinavia for the first time in 17 years. A restored base in Syria will give the Russian navy a presence in the Mediterranean Sea and Indonesia signed a $1.2 billion deal to buy Russian submarines, tanks and helicopters last month. Observers believe defence expenditure is largely a response to Western pressure. "The Americans are circling Russia with radars and installing anti-ballistic missiles close to our borders", says the defence commentator Colonel Viktor Litovkin. He further adds, "It is a matter of serious concern. We are being provoked into a new arms race. That is not in Russia's interest. The Americans do not want another competitor and their moves to achieve global strike capability are quite provocative. NATO has deviated from its original charter and assumed responsibility on a global scale for everything that happens. The West looks as if it is imposing its ideology on others, just as the former Soviet Union did. Fortunately we have recovered from this disease, but the Bush Administration has now caught it." Eighth, South Ossetia is a strategic region for Russia and the fighting presented the most dangerous crisis in the years in Caucasus region, a key conduit for the flow of oil from the Caspian Sea to world markets. Observers say that Russia has been annoyed when oil from Caspian Sea was transported through pipeline by a Western company to Turkey through Georgia, instead of through Russia to Baltic Sea. Finally, some observers say that the US wanted to find out the military capability, determination and power of Russia through the conflict because Georgia would not launch military operations on 8th August without the support of the Bush administration. Conclusion
Georgia's President must blame himself for all the mess he has created in the region. It is one thing to claim a territory but to grab it with military power from Russia is a different ball game. Georgia will have to pay a heavy price for its unwarranted adventure into South Ossetia. There is little doubt that conflicts arise from consideration of power politics. A balance of power between the US and Russia is taking place in Caucasus region. There seems to be no ready solution until and unless the US and Russia agree on a political framework for stability and peace.
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