Difficult time for Pakistan
HOPE for peace and progress under emerging democracy in Pakistan is being increasingly mired in violence and uncertainty. The Afghan inferno is sucking the neighbourhood. Fighting terrorism continues to be the top agenda of the PPP government. The latest bombing in Karachi, Islamabad and the offensive in Khyber area to evade insurgent pressure on Peshawar, the capital city of the frontier province, are the signs that containing terrorists through war and ceasefire is far from achieved. That Americans have advised Pakistan to concentrate on antiterrorist operations and not to waste energy on the removal of president Musharraf is the strongest indicator of the ground reality. The continuation of President Musharraf and failing to allow the judges to get back to the courts within 100 days are signs that corrections of the military regime may have to wait longer.
The tribal area, along both sides of the Durand Line that draws a porous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, is by nomenclature a lawless area with their own set of customs and traditions fiercely enforced by tribal sardars. I met a tribal man, while undergoing my part of rigorous imprisonment in 1971in Peshawar Central Jail, condemned to life imprisonment by tribal jirga for shooting his wife to death but missed her alleged lover. If he could kill both he would not have been condemned prisoner but a hero for honoring the tradition of killing the lover and the loved. The tribal law and culture along Pak- Afghan borders is least understood by the outside world. It is perhaps the 'life before guest' culture that allows Bin Laden and his followers to remain elusive in spite of the best efforts of the Americans for so many years.
The Durand Line is increasingly becoming crossover convenience for the terrorists. With the recent increase of the Taliban activities in Afghanistan and more American forces joining the fight, the end game is not in sight. But terrorist and insurgency movements always run on the myth of the legendry leaders. The leaders, however, remain perpetually vulnerable. Three coincidental factors had destroyed Shanti Bahini in the Chittagong Hill Tracts and forced them to come to the negotiation table. Without getting Bin Laden peace process cannot start in that region. He cannot hide from the American anger. Eventually, it will be unearthed that he was hiding in the most unsuspecting of places. Nobody can predict when that earth-shaking moment comes. Meanwhile, Muslims in general and Pakistan in particular will have to bear the burden for branding worldly pursuits as religious dictums. Who is first- Bin Laden or independent Palestine, is hovering on the Western mind. Taliban less Al Qeada, I suppose, is a manageable nuisance.
Pakistan has been a staunch ally and frontline state to prevent the Soviets to reach the warm waters. It is a different ballgame now. Many energy-rich Central Asian Republics need port facilities in Pakistan. But immediate priority is Bin Laden. If he is hiding in the mountains, the proposed pipelines the lifeline of the central Asian business cannot pass through hostile Afghanistan. Pakistan will be a beneficiary to the grand business strategy of the region. And with the extension of the pipeline, energy hungry India will be a larger beneficiary. But the pain refuses to relive for the time being
After Turkey, Pakistan is the staunchest ally of America. The ups and downs of strategic shift have not unhinged Pakistan from American camps. From creating Taliban monster to destroying Mullah Omar's regime, Pakistan has been an active agent of American strategic pursuit. She is now at the receiving end of the hostility of the terrorists and fundamentalists. It is difficult to suggest a way out of the mess. With India's growing presence as the strategic partner of America, Karzai's propensity to blame for everything wrong in Afghanistan, Pakistan has little choice but to glide through the discomfort.
Pakistan has a capacity to live in crisis, some say she has a capacity to create one if there is none; many however agree, it has a huge vested interest thriving in crisis. Historically speaking, Pakistan is on the gateway of Khyber Pass that paved the way for Central Asian adventurism in the subcontinent since time immemorial. Siding with the victors must have been the way of surviving and thriving for the locals under adverse conditions. When Pakistan switched sides from being Taliban backer to destroyer, how much choice they really had? Recent missile attacks on border posts inside Pakistan speak two things - irrespective of the international boundaries, terrorist suspects are targeted by the war machine, from Afghanistan, and as the border is manned mostly by the locals, it is possible that some staunchly religious tribesmen sympathise with the terrorists.
Muslim League of Newaz Sharif has pulled out of the Central government on the issue of the reinstatement of the dismissed judges. PM Syed Yousaf Raza Gillani, known to be a man of character and independence, is forced to focus on the spreading terrorists activities. The support of Muslim League (NS) to PPP government cannot be taken for granted after the ministers of ML walked out of the cabinet. Newaz Sharif is held back due to the fact that destabilisation of the PPP government will tip the balance in favor of the archenemy President Musharraf. Prices of essentials and energy are hurting the average man, plight of the dismissed judges hurt the upper crust of society; with American backing President Musharraf appears well saddled for a time. The best bet for democracy in Pakistan at this juncture appears a workable compromise among odd allies.
India instantly stokes emotion in Pakistan; she was ready to eat grass for atomic capability. Ever since, the legitimacy and security of the bombs is the major concern of Pakistan. It is difficult to assess, whether bombs are protecting Pakistan or Pakistan is protecting the bombs. No matter real or artificial, a nation cannot live under security vacuum. Many strategists agree that the bombs hurt but meet the security needs of Pakistan. We had observed Anglo-French rivalry within the NATO alliance. India may have their fingers towards China, with the bitterness of war and hostility, Pakistan went for bombs after India went nuclear in 1974. The bombs became an international concern when it was dubbed as Islamic bomb. War has failed to resolve the contending issues; peace needs time to give a healthy start. Meanwhile, Pakistan carries the heavy load of bombs and missiles.
There is however a common enemy for India and Pakistan in Afghanistan, menacingly coming down towards the plains of the subcontinent. India should encourage Pakistan to concentrate on Afghan front that would build goodwill for the future negotiations towards a lasting peace. She might have reasons to believe, but blaming Pakistan for the recent bombing in Kabul on the Indian embassy is a shallow bureaucratic way; does not relate to the strategic vision of India. Smaller neighbours live under apprehension real or artificial; India should convert her bulk from fear factor to strategic asset through small sacrifices.
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