<i>The decline of Annapolis and changes to the regional strategic environment</i>
Current US foreign policy in the Middle East is being strongly neutralized for different reasons:
1. The status of President George Bush as a lame duck president at the end of his term.
2. The effects of the domestic financial crisis in the US, its implications to the global economy and the deterioration of the dollar.
3. The lack of a political consensus among the different political institutions in the States (the White House, the Congress, the army) towards Iraq.
Both Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and Vice President Dick Cheney are conducting a maintenance policy of monitoring the situation while giving the impression that everything is under control. At the same time, they are again strengthening Israel as a key, strategic regional ally of the US in the Middle East.
In his visit to Israel (22-24 March 2008), Dick Cheney reiterated and assumed the consolidation of Israel-American relations, especially the commitment to defend Israel. He also confirmed to Israeli politicians and the military establishment his strategic concerns about Iran and any Iranian threat to the role of Israel in the region. Cheney also reviewed all the options on the table towards Iran (his meeting with Olmert, 22 March 2008).
Concerning Iraq, Cheney urged the Arab countries to reestablish diplomatic relations with the pro-American appointed government of Jawad al-Maliki. Dick Cheney perceives the current occupation in Iraq and the existence of the American military forces in Iraq as the final stage, which is not negotiable. In other words, the US will stay forever on this stage, according to Cheney's perceptions.
Vice President Dick Cheney, the architect of the first Gulf War and the occupation of Iraq in 2003, is the former head of Haliburton, one of the contracting companies that currently is doing a great deal of business in Iraq.
At the same time, however, Cheney would continue the Bush endless track of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. In that framework, he visited Mohammed Abbas in Ramallah, along with American Security Coordinator General Dayton, General James Jones and General William Frazier, and urged him to continue with the Israeli track.
In Jerusalem, he declared that he will never impose any pressure on Israel to push for a solution, an argument that means that there is no relationship between Israeli policy with the Palestinians and American conduct in the Arab world, mainly in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Dick Cheney believes that Iraq is a key strategic country with a proven reserve of oil, which America has to control and seize. Iraq is also a strategic key that can formulate any Arab coalition toward Arab unity. For that reason, he and his administration believe in the necessity of destroying and controlling Iraq, and diminishing it as a state. In that sense, Israel is playing an important role in dismantling this coalition, according to Dick Cheney's perception.
Israeli politicians from Peres to Barak are aware of Cheney's weakness as a result of his latest visit. They have recommended that the US deal mainly with Iran while he remains in office. President Peres went even further when he asked Cheney to understand the Israeli refusal to withdraw from the Golan Heights because Syria is a potential ally of Iran.
Concerning the Palestinians, Dick Cheney continues to support the status quo of further strikes against Hamas and continuing a conditional and endless dialogue with Abu Mazen. This is consistent with the American Road Map of supporting the Palestinian security force in order to confront Hamas.
Madam Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice arrived at the end of March 2008 in order to monitor any theoretical negotiations between the PA and Israel, in order to hint to the Arab Summit in Damascus that the US is doing something. Actually, she also wants to give the same impression to the Arab world that with her visit to Israel, she is trying to push something forward from Annapolis. Nevertheless, Ms. Rice's main purpose was to hold some contacts in order to neutralize the Arab Summit, mainly concerning crucial issues, such as an agreement on the Lebanese front, Iraq, Gaza, the Sana Declaration and Darfur. It seems that she might have succeeded because Egypt and Saudi Arabia, in coordination with the US, did not send high profile representatives to the Summit, such as their president and king.
Dick Cheney, however, did prepare the ground for Condoleeza Rice before her departure from Washington. Consequently, his visit was not received very well in the region. He came to the Palestinians with empty hands, threatened the Iranians and the Syrians, and did not learn the lessons of Iraq. The Arab media largely ignored him. They were very sorry for the warm reception they had given George Bush because they believed in the real "will" of the Americans. However, they soon realized that the Annapolis experience was aimed to strengthen Bush domestically.
The current administration is aware of the limitations of its capabilities. It is quite certain that it will not strike Iran. Israel also has read the American map of a weak president who cannot be helpful. It will, therefore, be very difficult to conduct any military adventure against Hezbollah or Syria.
Hezbollah, however, is also aware of its strategic choices and read the strategic environment very well. Hassan Nassrallah mentioned these Israeli strategic choices in a speech marking the end of 40 days of mourning for Imad Mughniyeh assassinated in Damascus. The $64,000 question is, therefore, who will shoot first? Who will act or react in order to change the current strategic environment.
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