Russia's new President: Will policy change?
President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (55) has ruled eight years from 2000. Under his regime Russia's image has been one of strong, assertive and powerful. He nominated Dmiriti Anatolevich Medvedev (42), a former First Deputy Prime Minister, as President. Medvedev was duly elected on 2nd March as the President with 70.2 per cent of the vote. His opponents Gennadi Zyuganov of the Communist Party secured almost 18% per cent and the ultranationalist Liberal Democratic Party candidate Vladimir Zhirinosky 9% per cent of the total vote. It is reported that the turnout of voters was 67% per cent. After the victory, Medvedev who wore a casual dress (a black leather jacket and blue jeans) reportedly said : " Despite this quite unpleasant snow falling from the skies, this is a very special day in the life of the country. At a news conference on 3rd March, Medvedev offered assurances that he and Putin would govern Russia together, saying they had long known and trusted each other. Their relationship "will become a rather positive factor in the development of our country." Medvedev said. Putin reportedly said: "I thank all our citizens who came to polls. This means that we live in a democratic state and our civil society is becoming efficient, responsible and active." Some say Putin's comment is directed to Western countries which accuse Putin of authoritarianism and lack of democracy in Russia. Putin & Medvedev
Medvedev's father Anatoly, taught at the Institute of Technology, while his mother, Yulia, taught language and literature at the Gertsen Institute. He comes from a different family background than that of Putin, although both Putin and Medvedev come from St. Petersburg. Both are lawyers. Putin worked in KGB while Medvedev did not. Putin, for majority of Russians, will enter history as a positive figure. Russia's political and economic instability has disappeared, and Russia grew rich with rising oil and gas prices which contribute 20% of its GDP. Russia's GDP now stands at $1.3 trillion, (less than $200 billion in 1999) and its economy grew at 8% per cent in 2007. Most importantly, observers say Putin gave his people faith in tomorrow. He differed with Western countries on many issues and asserted Russia's diplomatic and military muscle which the Russians approved. Putin will work as Prime Minister under President Medvedev. In a speech before the Russian State Council, Putin presented a list of ambitious goals for Russia, the reawakening superpower -- not just for the present, but for a period extending well into the future, until 2020. In doing so, he laid out a long-term plan. Analysts believe in 2012, after a four-year interregnum with Medvedev as President, Putin, who would be 59 by then, would be eligible to serve two additional terms as President. Will Russia change under Medvedev?
For sometime Medvedev will be under the watchful eye of Putin whose position as Prime Minister ensures continuity. It is a question whether the new President who is nominated by Putin is to preserve the status quo or whether the choice of Putin in selecting Medvedev has been a mistake if he departs from the policy of Putin, time only will tell. Analysts believe Moscow's current game of chess over political positions revolves around the question of who will be in charge, in the long term, of the world's largest country by landmass. Who will determine what happens with the country's vast oil, gas and diamond resources, its gold and foreign currency reserves worth almost half a trillion dollars, the world's second-largest nuclear weapons arsenal and poison cupboards full of intelligence files? In Russia the duties of Prime Minister are purely administrative. It is not known whether Medvedev will share some powers with Prime Minister Putin. If so, in which areas will they share power? Medvedev will soon join the world leaders at the G-8 summits to debate the global financial crisis, Kosovo's independence and the Iranian nuclear program (on March 4 Russia scuttled a resolution in IAEA against Iran proposed by the West). Will he express new approach to all these issues including his views on installation of missile surveillance equipment in Poland and the Czech Republic by the US? Medvedev has been calling for a stronger emphasis on the rule of law, the market economy and freedom of the press. Many say he has been talking like Gorbachev who was largely responsible for the collapse of Soviet Russia. Nobody knows Medvedev's real goals and values. He was never a public politician, although he is perceived as liberal, cultured, moderate and even pro-Western. As a young man he reportedly fought for democracy on the side of his boss, the mayor of St. Petersburg Anatoly Sobchak. Whether Medvedev emerges as a new Gorbachev is impossible to say at this moment. It all depends whether he is able to build an alliance of forces that will allow him to put his own men on strategic positions as to change the policies pursued by Putin. Political observers say that Medvedev will have to deal with certain problems within Russia, namely, (a) the failure to modernize industry or agriculture, (b) the growing corruption in the country, (c) drunkenness of Russians, (d) the record number of murders and suicides, (e) the inadequate state of health care and (f) a shrinking population. After the victory of Medvedev, Gorbachev echoed similar sentiment when he said that Russia needed to move on the path of modernization. He underscored the need "to modernize governance, create an innovative economy, re-emphasise education, and health, and as top priority, work to narrow the gap between rich and poor". Observers say that much of Medvedev's efforts are expected to be spent on these issues if Russia wants admiration from Western countries. Russia may get it if it becomes at par in providing services to its citizens compared to those in Western countries. Searching for a new world order
Some US writers hold the view that the power of the US has peaked and with the rise of Europe and Asia, it becomes clear that America's unipolar moment is not long for this world. While the US is clearly too strong to stay on the sidelines of world affairs, it is too weak to implement an agenda without wide international support. That is why the US had to negotiate with North Korea and seems to be powerless to stop Iran's nuclear program. Some say that the world order is in transition because there is no power at the moment including the US that can force an issue to its wishes and satisfaction. An awkward truth is that the world is neither dominated by a unipolar power nor multipolar powers. It is a non-polar world and the balance of power is going through an evolution period. The current fluidity in the balance of power carries a serious threat of instability and conflict as well as concerns over how to build an effective international response to abuses of power. US Strategy toward Russia
Against the background, the election of Medvedev as the new President affords an opportunity to review America's strategy towards Russia. It should be realized that there is broad-based support in Russia for the direction in which Putin has taken his country whether the West likes it or not. Washington may realize that Russia's resurgence and muscle is not temporary. Russia, China and the European Union appear not to be comfortable with the unipolar world led by the US. The sooner the US understands that the role of Russia should be seen as a positive factor in world affairs, the better it is for the world. There is no point for relations between Moscow and Washington to worsen. Medvedev reportedly said: "It is necessary that the US and Russia cooperate. It is inevitable." But many in Moscow have their doubts that the new president will become the country's real leader.
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