Who will win the race of US presidential election?
Photo: AFP
The question that peeps into everybody's mind ahead of the US presidential election is who will turn victorious in this electoral race? A number of electoral surveys and other analyses predict Obama's victory. Such conclusion is made based on the failure of the pre-Obama Republican regimes in both their domestic and foreign affairs. Although this hypothesis may be supported by too many arguments, the possibility of Romney's victory may not also be blown out. Romney's most important electoral attack against Obama is related to the latter's grand failure to combat the declining American economy. In his video-film named as Too Many Americans prepared at Virginia as the device for electoral advertisement, Romney claimed that despite their converging policy of considering the middle class and the poor Americans, he and Obama hold diverging operational modus operandi. What he wants in that is to improve the standard of living of his countrymen. Through Table, Obama's video-film, the Democrat candidate explained how he wants to bring change in the remaking of the economy of the poor and the marginalised. Another important instrument of the Republican candidate is Obama's lack of efficient employment policy. This argument is fuelled by the release of the US Labor Statistics Bureau on September 7 of a frustrating report regarding US employment. It says that the number of new employment in August was 96 thousand which is far below expectation. The report marks a decline in unemployment rate from 8.3% in July to 8.1% in August. What Romney used against Obama is the latter's failure with regard to the implementation of the electoral promise of reducing the unemployment rate to 5.4%. Responding to Mitt Romney's accusations, Barack Obama pointed out that the economic devastation and unemployment had been the legacy and continuity of pre-Obama republican regimes. In his Table, he reiterated that they were loosing about 800000 jobs almost every month at the time of his presidential oath. US Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney has attacked Barack Obama on various foreign policy issues that include his policy towards Middle East, his response to Iran's nuclearisation, his handling of the violent demonstrations in the Muslim world following the release of an amateur US film named Innocence of Muslim. He accused that under Obama's policy, the Middle East descends into chaos, Iran proceeds toward nuclear breakout, and Israel's security is compromised. He warned that such foreign policy will pull America into the maelstrom. In an op-ed piece in The Wall Street Journal, he said of recent "disturbing" developments in the Middle East that the US seems to be at the mercy of events rather than shaping them. He also said that the present Democrats are not moving them in a direction that protects American people or their allies. Obama is criticised for not taking prompt action against those involved in the killing of the US diplomats in Libya which must threaten the security of US envoys and citizens everywhere. Challenging the foreign policy arguments raised by Republicans, the Democrat campaigners claimed that their foreign policy is founded on the bunch of efficient, updated and American national interest-oriented strategies. Their realist perspective of foreign policy is not opposed to the welfare of the humanity. They argue that Obama has been successful in killing the al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, dismantling their worldwide terrorist networks, reducing the burden of trillion dollar wars in Iraq and Afghanistan through an early end and ensuring the security of the Americans in foreign lands. The Democrats have also been able to move toward diplomatic defeat for Iran on its nuclear issue through imposing a number of economic sanctions, trade embargo and bank restrictions. Any war threat to Iran or a direct war against it might endanger American interests in the Middle East region. In the light of above points made by the two competing political blocs, Obama's victory in the upcoming election may be predicted. The reasons are as follows. First, the victory for the second term in the presidential election has been America's historical phenomenon. All presidents have been elected for the second term in the contemporary history except Jimmy Carter. The Republican campaigners may try to bring back the Carter episode in the present electoral drama. The aim is to attract the electoral voters. Some analyses including New York Times concluded that Obama's prospective victory can not be prevented by the play of Carter card. Second, Obama is more prospective to get the mandate from the new and swing voters by virtue of his innovative domestic and vibrant foreign policies. The horrors of war, anti-war feelings and Obama's "change" theory might bring those voters in favour of the Democrat candidate. The insecurity achieved in the foreign countries because of the pro-war Republican policy should prevent the new generation from siding with Mitt Romney. Third, the integrity of Obama's personality may also be the resultant factor behind the forecast of his victory. Romney has been accused of not disclosing tax return for years. In the face of severe criticism, he has published at a time the tax return of last 20 years which have earned a very bad name. His file shows that he and his wife have disbursed 20 years' tax at the rate of only 13.6 percent and 20.2 percent that falls far below of a rich American's tax giving rate which is normally 35 percent. On the contrary, Obama, being a near middle income individual, has paid tax in 2011 at 20.5 percent rate. In fine, it can be said that Obama's success in the electoral race is obvious. The two candidates' face-off of October 3 may not have any significant impact on the ensuing election results. The 2008 Gallup survey showed that the results of only two elections during the 1960-2004 periods had been determined based on the face-offs. According to Robert Erickson, the author of The Timeline of Presidential Election, the presidential debate has only the temporary influence that does not change the minds of voters. However, despite explicit probability of Obama's electoral win, the unpredictability at the psyche of those voters may not also blow out the implicit possibility of the Republican comeback to the throne of America.The writer is Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka.
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