What awaits NATO in the future
Since the last NATO summit in Lisbon nearly two years ago it has carried out its operation in Afghanistan, conducted a UN sanctioned mission to Libya and focused on executing a new missile defense system over Europe. At the end of May in Chicago World Leaders came together once more to deal with the emerging global complex security challenges. At a time when Europe plunges deeper into recession and the future of a single currency is under serious challenge, the NATO Summit didn't actually come into spotlight. Also, the victory of an anti-EU candidate in the French Presidential election didn't help this issue. At a time of budget cuts and shrinking defense budget in the West how will NATO manage its transition from Afghanistan to newer threats to its partner nations remains the pressing issue. World leaders gathered at Chicago, and the Afghanistan issue took the center stage. They reaffirmed their faith on the Afghan security forces to protect their homeland. This is the most immediate concern over the ISAF's (International Security Assistance Force) departure from Afghanistan. Afghan military and police forces have been training for some time now with the US forces but they aren't prepared to take responsibility for their security. Many fear Al Qaeda could re-emerge with the exit of NATO troops from Afghanistan. It appears up to 20,000 British and US troops will remain behind at Afghan bases such as Bagram, Kandahar and Jalalabad for some time after 2014. Also, Afghan forces depend heavily on western money. When the aid dries up there won't be enough troops to secure the whole country specially the rural areas. Some also raised concerns over the attempted peace talks with the Taliban. The accelerated plans to withdraw troops from Afghanistan will give them even less incentive to negotiate. Social reforms in Afghanistan which occurred in the last decade is wobbly, at best regardless of the fact that the number of girls in school is now well over 2 million compared to 5,000 in the Taliban era. More and more women are entering the workforce even politics which no one even dreamt of in Taliban Haven. All of which may go undone if they make room for old biases. Withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan may lead to geopolitical instability. Afghan militants may cross borders, where western forces can't pursue them. It's also impractical to think Pakistan, burdened with her own problems would do anything to stop them. Another participant in this scenario can be Iran. The absence of US military presence in its neighborhood will result in Iran expanding its influence in this zone. If the outcome develops into a common goal of targetting US interests in this region, it will only worsen the contentious US-Iran relationship. Broader engagement of the international community has been promised in the development of Afghanistan. Nations pledged to a long term commitment to establish a peaceful, stable and prosperous country with the support of a legitimate and accountable government. Now the obligation is on NATO's part to see it through. Now to the much bigger issue at hand- can they remain pertinent in this century as it did in the previous one? During the cold war the US Led military coalition helped prevent communist aggression throughout the world. After the collapse of Soviet Union they were confined to Europe's backyard before committing to counterterrorism and nuclear proliferation. Since then they have been supporting the African Union Peacekeeping Operations, assisted with the Humanitarian & Relief Works in Pakistan and conducted anti-piracy operations in the horn of Africa. They even helped in the liberation of Libya from Gaddafi's forces. This along with the Afghanistan invasion can be seen as a major shift in NATO's policy. They are prepared to handle extreme situations with military power anywhere in the world, long before it reaches Europe. However, these engagements were not popular among the people. Allies aren't the only countries expressing fatigue over NATO's involvement in the region. China's state-affiliated Xinhua News Agency portrays the alliance as warmongering bully and blames it for the international disputes. The agency chastises NATO and argues it needs to pipe down on the international stage. Europe's continuous slashing down of their defense budget has now left US to cover three-quarter of NATO's entire budget. In Afghanistan few countries didn't allocate their soldiers in combat zones, rather insisted on deployment in peaceful areas. America didn't engage in the Libya operation from the front row but still had to assign military & intelligence assets. Europe has an increasing dependency on US military logistics. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO's Secretary General, has challenged members to embark on "Smart Defense," essentially pooling assets with the goal of developing and sharing better key military capabilities. At this point the US seems committed, whereas Germany backed austerity measures has cast a shadow on Europe's intention. With the withdrawal of combat forces from Afghanistan in 2014, NATO will be without a portfolio for the first time in nearly two decades. Whether it should go back to its main function of protecting the homeland or chose to neutralize threats overseas can only be answered in the future. Whatever is said, the US still needs this transatlantic partnership to counter China's growing military capability in the Asia Pacific, which Washington envisage as a critical region. President Obama mentioned Europe as their reliable partner in choice. Now they must work with the US to form their interest, potential and target for the next decades. Vladimir Putin has established a set of allies in Latin America, North Korea and Iran are on the verge of acquiring Nuclear missiles and Yemen has created the next safe haven for Al-Qaeda, rising influence of BRIC from a global strategic perspective- Everything to get worried about. The west cannot function at the optimum level without NATO combining them altogether to protect their interest and hierarchy which they have enjoyed for so long. How will the transatlantic alliance address these challenges will be answered in the coming years. Any mistake or failure to address an issue will have serious implications in the world of tomorrow. World leaders agree with this in the Chicago Summit declaration, "At a time of complex security challenges and financial difficulties, it is more important than ever to make the best of our resources and to continue to adapt our forces and structures. We remain committed to our common values, and are determined to ensure NATO's ability to meet any challenges to our shared security." One thing's for certain- With the US pivoting towards the Asia Pacific region and EU fighting for a common ground among its members in both internal and foreign issue the real nature of NATO involvement in Global Security Measures is a long way from being determined.
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