Living under the shadows of ICBMs
Photo: AFP
Recently, I watched a movie titled The Day After (1983). The film depicts a fictional war between Nato forces and the no more existent Warshaw Pact Alliance, that rapidly escalates into a full-scale war between the United States and the then Soviet Union. I saw how an ICBM was being launched with nuclear warhead and then detonated in the air or on the surface of the target area. This movie makes me assume what India has actually achieved on their historic day of testing the latest edition of ICBM, Agni-5. With this remarkable achievement India can feel proud as a member of the elite club of ICBM owners. Should we put your hands together for India? What an irony, a country has been spending over five hundred million dollars for developing ICBM for the last three decades where as almost half a billion countrymen there starve. Last year India spent $46 billion on weapons purchase while only $11.5 billion and $6 billion on education and health respectively. Now let us see this development against the backdrop of the present Asia-Pacific strategic landscape. 'Asia-Pacific- the next pivot' has become a buzz line since the US revisited its global security strategy. Both India and China are bolstering their ever increasing defence spending and so are the other East-Asian countries. To pin down China 'concern' and to gain an upper hand in the Asia-Pacific region have been the motivation for India to build such ICBM facility which will ensure its steadfast deterrence capability and credibility as a regional power. Is the Agni- V the last piece? Keep in mind Martin Amis's saying "Weapons are like money; no one knows the meaning of enough." China is still way ahead of India as per as India's defence capability is concerned. For instance, China's ICBM ranges 13000 km which is capable of targeting almost every part of the world. This tactical weapon is very much relevant to its global aspiration. India's primary concern is Asia-Pacific. Agni-V helps her to address her Asia-Pacific concern. A large part of Eastern Europe, many major cities of China like Beijing, Shanghai and in the South East Asia- Indonesia's Jakarta are within the range of Agni-5. This achievement has ensured India's credibility as a 'regional power.' What are the implications for India's neighboring countries? Will Agni-V endanger further the national security of those neighbouring nations? Do India's aspirations to be a regional power help its neighbours? What surprised me that there was no action or reaction from Bangladesh government regarding Agni-V test. It seems to me that Bangladesh is oblivious of the curse of arms race. Bangladesh is yet to play its due part in regional politics. But the geographical position can no way keep Bangladesh indifferent to these developments. It is now a reality that both India and China are in arms race. Bangladesh is almost sandwiched between these two giants. Any unexpected development between them will obviously endanger Bangladesh's national security. So in no way can Bangladesh desist from taking immediate measures. There are two options for Bangladesh. One, Bangladesh can build an anti ballistic missile shield to ensure its national security which is out of question. Second one, which is more realistic, Bangladesh can establish a regional forum by involving other countries, like Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and so forth, who are living under the same insecurities. This forum will speak out against arms race in South Asia. Time has come to raise the issue both regionally and internationally. Bangladesh alone may not be able to create a strong impression but can make it possible through a multilateral forum. If this forum can be built then it could work as a good bargaining chip to defuse probable tension between two giants.
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