Asia's air gets hot
A handout photo from the ISPR shows a Hatf IV Shaheen 1 medium-range nuclear-capable ballistic missile. Photo: AFP
Amajor arms race in Asia is going on without any furor anywhere. As India test fires an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead keeping a close attention to China's military trend, it makes a major advance in its defense capabilities. Pakistan subsequently tested Hatf IV (Shaheen 1A) ballistic missile with a range of 2,500 to 3,000 kilometers, which would put almost all of India within reach. Shortly after that, India launched a rocket and put into orbit a microwave Radar Imaging Satellite (Risat-1). The security analysts ask if a new door opens for a new arms race in South Asia. The Agni-V missile fired by India has a range of 5,000km which would give India the capability to strike most major cities in China, Iran and South-East Asia. The word Agni comes from Sanskrit language which means 'fire,' the name given to a series of weapons India developed as part of its highly integrated guided missile upgrading project launched in 1983. V K Saraswat, the head of India's Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) which built the missile said, "I am announcing the successful launch of Agni V… making history and making our country proud in the area of missile technology." He also said that India is now a "missile power." The Indian security analysts considered it as a big moment for them as they see it as a major step to India's effort to become a regional power that can counter China's influence in South Asia. The test opens the gate for India to join the elite group of countries that have long-range weapons that can carry nuclear warheads, which currently only the five permanent members of the UN Security Council like Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States possess. South Asia is a home to two nuclear club members that is India and Pakistan and in close proximity to another major nuclear power- China. India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974 in the name of peaceful explosion of nuclear weapons, and in May, 1998 New Delhi conducted a series of underground explosions. Pakistan also tested its first nuclear weapons at the same time, while China has been a nuclear power for decades. Despite both India and China have sworn off first use, both have built up formidable deterrents designed to retaliate against any attackers. The alliance pattern in South Asia is: India-US alliance and Sino-Pakistan alliance. The development of defense capability by India is increasingly aimed at the Sino-Pakistan alliance. While India tests its ICBM, the United States kept quite a low voice and described India as a responsible nuclear state. It creates a dichotomy of great power policy, while US expresses deep concern over North Korea's nuclear test, it tacitly supports India in its nuclear way forward. Under the US-India nuclear deal, India receives nuclear fuel and technology that helps to enlarge its nuclear arsenal. The United States takes India as a 'valuable strategic ally' as part of its 'offshore balancing strategy' against China which is actually fanning the flame of disputes between the two countries. Currently China is clearly perceived by the American strategic analysts as the most important threat to US interests in the Asia-Pacific region, so Washington is pursuing a 'New Containment Policy' in the second decade of the twenty first century. As the economic might of both China and India are increasing simultaneously, they have both set about building robust military complex to lend extra muscle to their growing strategic ambitions, and there are enough materials to spark worries given their complicated history. "China has the most active and diverse ballistic missile development program in the world," noted one US report. "China's ballistic missile force is expanding in both size and types of missiles." The two countries are not only engaged in competition in the air space but also engaged in a naval arms race as they both jockey for influence in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea waters around South Asia. Most of China-India interactions relate to the seas or the littoral areas. The two countries do not share a sea boundary, but that does not matter. As rising powers, their vital security interests have been expanding from their immediate peripheries to regional extremities and beyond. Their increasing capabilities are rebalancing the strategic scenario in Asia. China is primarily worried about deterring the threats from the world's leading nuclear power, the United States, while India's strategic calculations focus on the threat from Pakistan and China. India's military buildup has several overlapping motivations. But the most pressing motivation may be the fast moving China. The strategic logic creates the direct friction among India, China and Pakistan on several fronts. When India makes any development of its existing nuclear stockpiles focusing on China at least in rhetorical sense, it also has a chain effect on Pakistan. Pakistan considers modernising its nuclear house as a deterrent need against India. In almost every case India used the China card to justify its expanding nuclear weapons program, Pakistan used the India card and China used the US card. But the question comes on how many weapons would be enough to deter the countries from attacking each other. A lack of trust and doubts concerning China's rise have to some extent resulted in a "security dilemma." The potential regional implications of nuclear competition are enormous and place a huge moral as well as legal responsibility on anyone who might consider taking that state down such a path. The risk of further inflaming the volatile international politics of Asia and potentially catalyzing the development of nuclear weapons by other states such as Myanmar would be a retrogressive step on the path to regional and global peace, disarmament and stability. Rather than moving away from the escalatory nuclear policies, such skewed priorities encouraging non-nuclear weapons states to break from their NPT commitments. The nuclear fallout in South Asia will have a catastrophic regional effects and we the small countries (in terms of geography) with huge population would not be able to escape from that destruction. The human cost would be terrible and the possibility of sparking a wider conflict in the region does not bear thinking about. A dispassionate look at the current tensions among the countries in Asia would surely conclude that the security concerns of each state must be acknowledged for peaceful coexistence of the countries in this region.
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