Who will dominate South Asia?
It is only fair to say that South Asia had not been a region of much significance to the US prior to the war against terror. Although they never failed to maintain their supremacy in this region, this renewed attention has brought them to the reality- China's rising influence in this region. Although many people argue that Beijing's influence on this region is merely a consequence of China's economic dynamism, the reality is not so straightforward.
Chinese Communist Party (CPC) in the post-Mao Zedong era adopted an 'Independent Foreign Policy of Peace' to ensure common development and modernization of the society. This was much needed. President Hu Jintao followed his own theoretical concept of 'Scientific Outlook of Development' aimed at a harmonious socialist society of sustainable development. Correspondingly, President Jintao put in place an external strategy based on the idea of a "Harmonious World" aimed at realizing a 'win-win' solution in international relations. From present perspective it may be argued that whatever interest China has on its neighbors is purely strategic intended for a stable surrounding environment. Tracing the link of domestic goals and foreign policy objectives the PRC premier stated, "What China needs for its development first and foremost is an international environment of long term stability and a stable surrounding environment."
Despite popular perception, China is the single largest trading partner of India. Tensions between the two most populous countries have been lingering since the Sino-Indian war of 1962. But gradually both parties sought to reduce tension in the frontier and concentrated expanding trade. Lately they seemed very eager to resolve their boundary dispute and several issues ranging from WTO's Doha Round in 2008. Similar changes have been observed in a recalibration of Beijing's attitude towards the region as China expects a balanced outcome of their development of relations with South Asian nations. The PRC modified its pro-Pakistan stand on the Kashmir issue. State controlled media have been dropping references to 'India occupied Kashmir' and using instead the terms 'India controlled Kashmir' and 'Pakistan controlled Kashmir'. Beijing no longer considers Kashmiri people a third party in the dispute. Instead they decided on the idea that 'India and Pakistan should properly solve the problem through dialogue and negotiations.' China seems to have realized that cooperation with India is essential for it in tackling global issues like the WTO, climate change, global financial reform and revamping of the UN Security Council.
Now it seems that China is seeking India's support on many issues rather than just maintaining a functional relationship. Deepening Chinese fears concerning sovereignty over Tibet and Xinjiang may spark fresh tension in the area. But recent approaches suggest China will be uncompromising in the Tibet or Dalai Lama issue regardless of the international pressure. The assertiveness China has shown in its foreign policy depends on some factors such as, the PRC's growing need to protect land and sea trade routes in the interest of the much needed import of resources from abroad and enduring suspicion on US strategy towards Taiwan. These circumstances have led India's Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh to observe "There is new assertiveness on the part of China; it will be difficult to say which way it will go and India should be prepared."
The Chinese PLA is now entering a new era. They want to allocate their troops in strategically important geographic locations. Indian fears over the future military potentials of China's port projects in India's neighborhood, like Gwadar (Pakistan),Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Sittwe (Myanmar) and Chittagong(Bangladesh) are justified. Also China has tactically positioned its maritime resources in the South China Sea. This may be seen as an elaborate plan to assert their dominion in the Asia Pacific in the years to come.
But next to the SouthEast Asia, China still views South Asia as the most receptive of 'projection of Chinese influence.' India begins to see China as a potential military threat whereas the last White House administration emphasized on the view to see China as a strategic competitor. It is farfetched to think of China as threat to US interests in this area, but it's also safe to say they don't lag far behind. They have added aircraft carriers in their fleet and have plans to use stealth aircrafts within this decade. India is also modernizing their military.
This sudden shift in geopolitical orientation in this region is part of what some view as a larger shift in the international balance of power equivalent to the rise of Western Europe in the 17th century or the US in the beginning of last century. Some analysts believe that emergence of a new great power in the world stage would disrupt the balance of power which would inevitably lead to conflict. As China's rise creates concern about how Beijing will use its growing economic and military power we have heard from the US secretary of state, "The United States has strong economical, political and strategic interests in this area." It seems that the US would go a great length to safeguard its interests and would not allow China's overwhelming control over South Asia.
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